Silver SIK May18 Possible Long Setup

2018년 4월 25일

25 Apr 2018 Silver Comex
May18 SIK2018 16.63

Price has reappeared back within its range channel after a brief flirt with the outside world.
Normally rectangles are consolidation patterns with price eventually proceeding in the direction of the trend which preceeded the consolidation, which in Silver's case, looking at late Jan, was down.
This would require a break , close below the lower dashed line at 16.25
Similarly, an upside break would require a break close above the upper dashed line at 16.80. The recent price move would have had validity if it had pulled back and re-tested this break out line. This would have been a great pull back entry point.
However, the solid close back inside the rectangle negated that.
I am now considering this new, red uptrend line. This is a differnt style of price movement to the preceeding three months, which have resembled more vertical and horizontal movements - not this recent diagonal style.
Also my lower indicator is approaching a buy signal - normally only occurring at the lower of the flat channel range. The recent fake could be distorting it.
The bar low/close of Apr 12 gives me my Stop (say) 16.40
I want to buy towards end of trade only with a close on the red up trend line (say) 16.55 or above.
Target is upper channel, but I am thinking it may want to breech again (say) 16.80+
Hold until we get a breech, close below the up trend line.
The initial RR really sucks, but interest rate concerns may push it higher. If I dont get initially stopped, I will move my stop to the low of the most recent blue bar (say) 16.50 +/- ... improves my RR; limits my potential loss and keeps me in with an interest.
... just my 2c worth ...