Analysis techniques – Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025)

Date: 30/09/2025 | Timeframe: H1 | Contract Code: LRCX25

1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
The Robusta market is weakening after failing to hold the 4,200 USD/ton support. The overall bias is bearish as prices trade below long-term averages, forming a distribution pattern on the H1 chart.

2. Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 4,305 – 4,500 – 4,926
Support: 4,020 – 3,628 – 3,145

3. Detailed Technical Analysis
Short-term trend: Breakdown below 4,150 suggests continuation of the downtrend.
Volume: Increasing volumes during sell-offs confirm selling pressure dominance.
Wave structure: Currently in the second impulse wave down, targeting 3,600–3,650.
Confirmation signals: Bearish crossovers among moving averages reinforce downside momentum.

4. VNC Intelligence Strategic View
Short-term bearish momentum dominates as the market fails to reclaim 4,305 resistance. Mid-term fundamentals remain weak, with steady supply from Vietnam and Brazil adding to pressure.

5. Suggested Technical Strategies

Short setup (trend-following):
Entry: 4,150–4,200
TP: 3,630
SL: 4,310
Probability: High

Counter-trend Long setup:
Entry: 4,000–4,020
TP: 4,300
SL: 3,880
Probability: Low – tactical rebound trade only.

6. Corporate Hedging Guidance
Importers may consider hedging short-term positions to benefit from the downtrend. Exporters should avoid premature short sales, maintaining flexible forward contracts in case of a rebound near 4,000.