$RBLX - Continuation of Stage 4?

2023년 1월 6일

Dear all,

In a weak market, I look for stage 4 breakouts and continuation pattersn (based on the famous Stan Weinstein).
I try to look for bear flags that fall together with downsloping 50 day sma (or at least very close, a few %s).


Roblox had a gap down 15dec on big volume, price is now trying to fill the gap.
While it is trying to fill the gap it is forming a potential bearish flag.
If the gap is filled, price would coincide with the decling 50dma, AVWAP from recent high and the downtrending resistance line (since august).
When this point is reached (and only when), and price is resisted at the 50dma or breaks the flag, this could be a good entry for buyings some puts (3 months out).
Possible stoploss could be the long term downtrending resistance line or 50dma.

Things to consider for a stage 4:
- weak overall market :check
- declining 30 week Ma :check
- declining 10 week Ma :check
- 10 w underneath 30w :check
- Loss of trendline :TBA

Extra reasons for stage 4 decline:
- Big volume on down days
- Gap downs
- Resistance of AVWAP of important dates