Short on RBOB

Shorting RBOB ( Gasoline ) at 2.15.

TECHNICAL
This is largely based on a technical situation:

Two (2) fib levels confluence
88.8% ( MAY ’18 -> DEC ‘18 )
1.27% ( MAR ’19 -> APR ‘19 )

One ( 1 ) notable Fib “Time” Level ( 1.382% FEB ’16 -> MAY ’18 ( Bullish Retrenchment ) )

Previous Structure
Mid ’18, Aug ’17 & Jun ‘15

RSI Divergence
RSI ( Daily Chart ) topped out in MAR; a further push up would be x2 divergence

100 Day MA
I haven’t fully quantified this part albeit it will likely end up ~20% above the 100 day moving average; it has certainly exceeded that ( NOV -> DEC ’18 ) albeit 20% was the top in MAY ‘18

Round #
It’s a round #

FUNDAMENTAL
There are a lot of fundamental factors affecting why this might not be a good trade. The US is looking to end waivers on Iran, Venezuela ( it’s happening ), Saudi Aramco is looking to IPO soon, etc.

On the other hand, Trump has been pretty quiet on oil prices ( BTW – I know this trade is RBOB ) & seasonality ( I haven’t done my own research yet ) suggests it’s coming to a consolidation stage ( link ).

IN SHORT
Stop Loss: ( 2.2587 )
TP: ( 0.618 from 24 DEC ‘18 however far it pushes into it )