QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF) – Breaking Down in the Future

3일 전

📉 Overview:
QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq-100, is showing signs of exhaustion at the $535.55 resistance zone. A corrective pullback is anticipated as the ETF completes its 5th wave, aligning with overbought conditions and broader macroeconomic headwinds.

📊 Technical Analysis:

Resistance Zone:
- Key Levels: $527.78–$535.55 (88% Fibonacci retracement).

This zone has capped recent bullish attempts, with a potential reversal into a bearish wave structure.

Elliott Wave Count:
- Wave 5: Likely complete, with a corrective wave (A-B-C) unfolding.

A break below the support trendline could signal the start of a more significant decline.

Targets:
- Target 1: $515.55 – Near-term pullback zone aligned with Fibonacci confluences.
- Target 2: $498.58 – Corresponds with the 1.0 Fibonacci extension of the corrective wave.
- Extended Target: $480.28 – Major support zone and 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
- Stop-Loss: Placed above $535.55 to avoid false breakout risks.

🌐 Macro Analysis:

Tech Sector Challenges:
- Rising interest rates are a headwind for growth-oriented sectors like technology, which dominate QQQ.
- Valuations appear stretched, leaving little room for error as earnings season approaches.

Economic Data:
Market sentiment is fragile amid concerns over slowing economic growth and potential Fed tightening in early 2025.

Nasdaq-100 Dependency:

Heavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech stocks makes QQQ vulnerable to concentrated risks.

⚡ Trade Plan:
- Short Entry Zone: $527.78–$535.55.

Risk-Reward Setup:
- Stop-Loss: $535.55.
- Target 1: $515.55 (RR ~ 2:1).
- Target 2: $498.58 (RR ~ 4:1).
- Extended Target: $480.28.

🔍 Considerations:
Look out for Nasdaq-100 earnings reports, which could act as a catalyst for volatility. Monitor economic releases, such as inflation and jobs data, which could shift sentiment.

Is QQQ poised for a reversal, or could the bulls defy the odds? Share your thoughts in the comments! 🚨📉