Trade Idea: QBE.AX – Breakout Swing Setup

Entry Trigger:
🔹 Buy stop @ AUD 22.71 — breakout above recent highs with volume confirmation.

Thesis:
QBE has built a multi-week consolidation just under the key resistance level of 22.70–22.75. A breakout above this zone could trigger a bullish continuation, supported by improving capital metrics, analyst upgrades (Jefferies Buy @ $24.30), and rotation into defensive financials.

Fundamentals Snapshot:
• ROE: 16.6%
• Dividend Yield: ~3.9%
• Strong capital adequacy (PCA 1.86x)
• Recently posted +27% net profit growth in FY24

Technical Setup:
• Resistance: 22.70 (breakout level)
• Volume spike potential if breached
• MACD SL: 21.06 (use as technical invalidation zone)

Risk Management:
• 🛑 Stop Loss: 21.10 (below MACD SL + recent pivot)
• 🎯 Target: 24.50–25.00
• 📊 R-Multiple: Approx 1:2.5 to 1:3 depending on entry fill

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