Long term PRGS analysis

2019년 6월 17일

Abstract:
Midterm short, mid-long term long up to $61-$74 levels
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A best effort promise to publish forecasts each week.
Requests for forecasts are welcome.
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PRGS has a very clearly printed correction wave that gives a solid base for a high probability long term analysis.
Wave analysis gives us powerful tools for direction and potential forecasting, but it is a probability forecast.
There are two options that can develop. Both have same direction and similar target levels, but a different path.

Option 1)

• Impulse ending a cycle wave
  started 02.2009
  up to levels $61-74 (01.2021)
  Confirmation: Clear breakthrough of $37 level
  Rejection: Powerful bounce from levels around $37
  Probability: 60%
  

Option 2)

• An impulse ending an intermediate wave
  started 10.2018
  up to levels of $64 (04.2020)
  Confirmation: Powerful bounce from levels around $37
  Rejection: Clear breakthrough of $37 level
  Probability:40%
  

As patterns develop and give more clues which option will follow, I will update the idea.
At levels $37, we will look fo:
1) price action, candle strength on dayly and 4H charts.
2) RSI and MACD divergence indicating bear weakness and potential reversal

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Disclaimer:
Not an investment advise.
Levels and dates are approximate.
An option probabilities sum less than 100% means unformulated options.