ORCL

1️⃣ Overall Price Structure (Price Action)

The long-term trend is still bullish (the ascending channel you drew is valid).

After topping around 300–320, price entered a deep correction.

Currently, price is trading near the lower boundary of the rising channel and a key support zone.

2️⃣ Fibonacci Levels

The Fibonacci levels you marked are very relevant:

0.618 ≈ $203 → Major support (price is hovering around this level now)

0.5 ≈ $228 → Mid resistance

0.382 ≈ $254 → Strong resistance

0.236 ≈ $286 → Heavy resistance

Previous high ≈ $330–340

📌 As long as $203 holds, the bullish scenario remains valid.

3️⃣ Moving Averages (EMA)

EMA 200 ≈ $217 → Price is below it → short-term weakness

EMA 50 ≈ $213 → Dynamic resistance

EMA 9 ≈ $194 → Price is slightly above it

📌 For a confirmed reversal:

Hold above EMA 9

Break and hold EMA 50

Reclaim EMA 200

4️⃣ RSI (14)

RSI is around 42–48

Recovering from oversold conditions

A mild bullish divergence is forming (your circled area is correct)

📌 Selling pressure is decreasing, but bullish momentum is not strong yet.

5️⃣ MACD

MACD is still below zero

Forming a higher low

Lines are close to a bullish crossover

📌 This usually happens before the start of a bullish move.

6️⃣ Scenarios
🟢 Bullish Scenario (More Probable)

If:

$200–203 support holds

Price reclaims $215–220

Targets:

$228

$254

$286

Strong breakout → $320–340

(The upward arrow you drew is technically sound.)

🔴 Bearish Scenario (Invalidation)

If:

Daily close below $195–190

Downside targets:

$170–165

Worst case: $120–130 (Fib 1.0)

7️⃣ Quick Summary

Long-term: Bullish

Short-term: Corrective / consolidation

Key level: $203

Bias: Cautiously bullish

⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal technical view only. I take no responsibility for any buy or sell decisions made based on this analysis.