Oil Bears in for a Crude Awakening

업데이트됨

Don't get excited just yet. The only certainty in the oil game is it's not for the faint of heart and right now, the bears are getting crushed.

Now that prices are gearing up it looks like it's time to make a new plan. Before I do let's recap the last one.
Previously I had noticed a particular trendline that prices broke out of in early August. As that breakout failed, it seemed a retest of that trendline was inevitable.

Prices bounced right back up to a macro fib retracement level (@ $40) as they often do, like a magnet.

Then after it failed at that fib level and retested that trendline again, I noticed a potential tricky oil move playing out: the head and shoulders fake out.

Now here we are breaking $40.50 and the 50 Week EMA. Although I have been buying oil stocks on these dips I am not trading futures just yet until prices can stabilize above $40. Eventually, I'd like to see a weekly close above that 50 week EMA and then start buying dips on the 1 hour chart all the way up to the 200 week EMA at $51.50

The MACD on the monthly chart is showing a nice divergence and as always, I'm keeping an eye on that macro Fib retracement level at $40 as the pivot point.