NZDUSD: On The Eve Of RBNZ, Here's What The Chart Says

2016년 8월 9일

NZDUSD: News Is Unknown But The Chart Is Clear

NZDUSD is stalling now ahead of the RBNZ rate decision. Rate decisions nowadays are all the rage. And have been the cause of much volatility. But if you ignore the news and just look at the chart, it is telling a clear tale.

Here in this 4HR chart, you can clearly see that NZDUSD has already turned a corner and is dropping again after a nice long clear trading channel up. It broke that channel and reversed.

We went SHORT on this pair last week when our PENDING SELL ORDER was triggered. And when prices dropped as predicted, we moved the SL to B/E. Currently, we are already up over +110 pips. Here's the trade call given to my members:

TRADE ALERT: NZDUSD PENDING ORDER
SELL@.72480
SL@.73430 TP1@.69090
R:R 3.5 risk: 95*4 reward: 339*4 ranking: 3.5
Trade Active. Trade Update: Move SL to B/E

Back in July, prices made a high after finishing a move up. I've labeled that a wave (A). If you don't know why I labeled it that way, refer to the longer term Quick Reference charts on NZDUSD here: Basic Quick Reference Charts.

Following that wave (A), of course there is to be the corrective wave (B). It needs to unfold in 3 waves. The first wave down after the completion of the wave (A) was impulsive. That means that it should be the wave A of (B). The next wave up that finished recently unfolded in a complex WXY pattern. That makes it corrective. So what we are expecting is that the next wave down, the wave C of (B) needs to unfold in an 5 wave impulsive manner. So far, it is looking like it is but of course is still much too early to tell how it will do so. So by my wave count, the current wave MUST be a impulsive wave DOWN in a wave C of (B). So that means that there is no where to go but DOWN. It's clear.

The main pattern at play here is the POTENTIAL Bat. However, that bat's completion D point would complete way outside the larger expanding diagonal pattern which I don't favor happening. Again, refer to the Daily chart in the Basic Quick Reference page to see what I am referring to. But regardless, the bat pattern is still useful in helping to indicate the price direction.

2016년 8월 10일

노트

Much will depend on the RBNZ rate decision later today. A rate cut is expected but no one knows for sure if that will happen. If it does, then we would expect prices to reverse and head back down. If not, then we should see prices shoot on up further. I don't know nor do I base anything on speculating about news but recent price action does now lend to much uncertainty. My SHORT trade got closed out at break even. So no harm, no foul. I am now sitting on the side and waiting to see what happens.

In the meantime, here are the 2 ways I think that it could play out going forward:

2016년 8월 11일

노트

So the RBNZ threw things out of whack for a bit. But in actuality, it set up the pins nicely to get knocked down. Back in on a SHORT trade already. Should see it drop nicely now...