Kiwi Observations

2015년 4월 18일

So...what a week ay! markets were all over the place trying to draw people in for the most part, i dont believe too many people were expecting the sudden Dollar weakness on Wednesday and the market would of no doubt swallowed a lot of people up i got caught out myself trying to short Aussie but fortunately risk management kept me alive and i managed to end the week with a 4.1% ROI still with a big thanks to catching USD/CAD long awaited range breakout!

Anyway...back to Kiwi my bias is 50/50 still we are really just going to have to let things play out before jumping into anything and let the market show its next move however you can see that after the double bottom we have moved back up into this daily channel we was trading within before and Fridays close shows a lot of profit taking for the week just finished although im not sure that means the bull run is over just yet... its just broken through a 4hr trendline within the channel and retested the top of the channel.

This pair tends to trade within roughly 400 pip ranges so a break and close above the channel could see us move up to 0.80000.

A break below the range could see a triple bottom form at 0.7200.

You'll notice the 0.382 Fib, this was drawn off the weekly chart from about 0.50000 up to 0.88000 again its just an idea that if we get confirmation and more bullish action away from the fib we could potentially be riding the C-D leg of a huge ABCD pattern with completion around 1.00000. On the weekly chart it also looks like the MA's are about to cross which they haven't done since July 2014 so are quite reliable.

Any comments or ideas let me know what you think, enjoy your weekends!