NVDA: Fibonacci cluster support and 200MA at 126.5.

2월 27일

NVDA: Fibonacci Cluster Support at 126.5 Sets Up Potential 10% Rally to 140

Looking at NVIDIA's technical setup, I've identified a critical support zone that could launch NVDA toward a significant target if it holds.

Technical Analysis

The current price action shows NVIDIA testing a key support zone consisting of:
- Fibonacci cluster at 126.5
- 200 Moving Average support

If this support zone holds, I'm targeting the next Fibonacci cluster at 140, representing approximately a 10.7% upside potential.

Entry Strategy

I'm monitoring two potential entry scenarios:

Aggressive Entry (15-minute chart):
- Wait for 8 EMA to cross above 34 EMA
- Price must break above the most recent swing high
- Entry on confirmation of this break

Conservative Entry (30-minute chart):
- Same criteria as above but on the 30-minute timeframe
- Provides more reliable signals with fewer false breakouts

Risk Management

Stop Loss: Place stops below the 126.5 Fibonacci/200 MA support zone (approximately 124-125)
Profit Target: First target at the 140 Fibonacci cluster

Conflicting Indicators

My analysis shows mixed signals that require caution:

1. My WillVall indicator on the weekly chart shows a potential buy opportunity at current prices, BUT it needs to change direction and move above the 15 level before confirming a long-term entry
2. Multiple timeframe squeeze indicators (Weekly, 4D, 3D, 2D) are currently in squeeze with negative momentum, suggesting downside pressure
3. According to IBD Market School methodology, the market is showing signs of correction and the buy switch is currently OFF, indicating we should avoid new long positions

Trade Plan

Given the current market conditions and mixed signals:
- Wait for confirmation of support at the 126.5 zone
- Look for entry signal confirmation on preferred timeframe
- Use smaller position size due to conflicting indicators
- Set clear stop loss below support (124-125)
- Target the 140 Fibonacci cluster for profit taking

I'll remain patient and wait for clearer market conditions before committing significant capital to this trade. The technical setup is promising, but broader market conditions suggest caution.

2월 27일

액티브 트레이드

NVDA Update: Support Break at 126.5 Shifts Focus to 120 Level

After monitoring the NVIDIA setup I shared previously, I need to provide an important update as market conditions have changed.

Setup Invalidation

The critical support zone I identified at the 126.5 Fibonacci cluster and 200 MA has failed to hold. This invalidates my previous bullish scenario targeting 140, and we need to adjust our outlook accordingly.

New Support Target

With the breakdown below our key support level, the next significant support zone appears at the 120 level.

Potential Reversal Zone

Should NVDA reach the 120 support level, we'll need to watch for signs of reversal. If support holds at 120, we could see a bounce back toward the previous support (now resistance) at 126.5, which aligns with the 200 MA.

Market Context

This breakdown aligns with the broader market caution I mentioned in my previous analysis. The IBD Market School indicators showing correction signals and the "buy switch OFF" status have proven accurate, reinforcing the importance of waiting for proper market conditions before entering new positions.

I'll continue monitoring NVDA's price action around these key levels and provide further updates as the technical picture evolves.

3월 3일

주문취소됨

The NVDA long setup is invalidated. Price broke below key levels, cancelling our bullish outlook. We're now in a wait-and-see mode, looking for a Follow Through Day (FTD) in the broader market to confirm a shift from bearish to bullish.