NVIDIA (NVDA): Where Are We in the Cycle?

Ticker: NVDA
Category: Market Structure / Elliott Wave Analysis
Author’s note: Educational analysis — not financial advice.

🧠 Market Context

NVIDIA has been one of the strongest growth stories in the last market cycle. However, after such a powerful move, many traders are now asking: Where are we in the broader structure — and what could come next?

From a structural perspective, NVDA appears to have completed its third Elliott Wave, with the fourth wave currently in progress. This phase often reflects a period of consolidation, where the market digests previous gains before potentially starting the fifth wave.

📊 Elliott Wave Structure

Through the lens of Elliott Wave theory:

• Wave 3 — likely completed after the parabolic advance that marked NVIDIA’s latest all-time highs.
  
• Wave 4 — a corrective phase, potentially forming a sideways or slightly downward structure.
  
• Wave 5 (ahead?) — may still occur, possibly extending above the upper boundary of the current price channel.
  

However, once the fifth wave completes, markets typically enter a longer consolidation or corrective phase — often retracing 50–60% of the total move from the highs.

⚙️ Volatility and Price Range

Currently, NVDA is trading within a broad channel, roughly between $100 and $400+.
Volatility remains elevated — which suggests that the sideways phase could persist for several months, or even longer.

Such behavior is common in late-cycle stages when large market participants distribute part of their holdings while retail interest remains high.

📈 Key Takeaways

• The main impulsive move seems to have already played out.
  
• The market may enter a range-bound or sideways phase, with local rallies still possible.
  
• Correction risks are gradually increasing, especially if the fifth wave develops and fails to sustain new highs.
  

In short, this might not be the best time to chase — but rather to observe how price behaves within the current channel.

💬 Final Thoughts

This analysis is purely educational and reflects one possible scenario based on market structure.
No one can predict the exact timing or depth of the next move — the market always decides.

👉 What do you think?
Are we already in the correction phase, or is there still one more leg up left for NVDA?
Share your view in the comments below 👇