The Big Short (Big Loss) Trade Recap

6월 18일

I'm sure most of you who are reading this are well aware of my bearish bias recently. I've posting chart after chart, pattern after pattern, and I kept getting bearish results. I had a lot of other reasons as well that made me have high confidence in the trade. It didn't work, that's just how it goes. Price will not stop moving just because I have a line on my chart. The trade is not completely over, still have a few puts farther out, but took the loss on most of them.

I'll be ready to short when VX breaks out and I see other confirmation, but until then I think it's time to go into dip buying mode. Need to be careful, a rally like this can have a sharp correction, so it's tough to long near ATH, but also need to be careful with puts. I'd like to see a little more confirmation. NQ has basically gone straight up, that's not what I consider to be a healthy rally, there would be more consolidation and pull backs along the way if it were really strong IMO. SPY is well above the average return for an election year already and there's many things that could break the market down the line, but for now I'll wait for that to happen. Anyone could tell you this rally isn't sustainable, but they can't tell you when it ends, so it is best to wait.