a weekly price action market recap and outlook - nvidia #3
Good evening and i hope you are well.
Last time i talked about Nvidia was 3 week ago and Nvidia at 661. Time to revisit and adjust again.
I said buy, 700 and even 800 were my targets. Market kept at it, 788 now with 823. If you made money, please leave a comment, thumps up or whatnot. I hope you enjoyed it.
Outlook
Quote from last outlook: "The thing about FOMO rallies is, no one knows where it will end and it can go so much higher and longer than anyone would have ever guessed."
If you don't think this stock is a bubble, you have not been paying enough attention to bubbles and the financial markets as whole. But it's alright, as long as you make money, no one cares.
Only question is, when will it burst. I explained my reasoning why it will continue to go up and if it stops, it might go down hard because so many people want to save their gains.
bull case: 800 was my rough target based on some measured moves, it's a big round number and market did what it had to. Good profit taking there too. Now what possibly can the reason for the bulls be to buy this? Well, it's only going up and trend is your friend. Does that mean it's smart to buy at upper trend lines, fulfilled measured move targets and what have you? No. It's plain freaking dumb from a risk:reward perspective. The next reasonable targets are 900 and 1000. I just won't try to come up with reasoning from a price action perspective here, sorry.
bear case: I did not touch any of the lines drawn 3 weeks ago. Last week we had a pullback for 10% and this week another run for 25% up. This is peak insanity of a stock and we are very close to the end. No one want's to be left holding the bag and the next pullback will be a deeper one. For that to happen, the overall market has to weaken and since we are still making new ath's evey week, no reasoning for a short here anyhow. If you dare, wait for weakness and then sell small. The risk:reward is on your side if bears can get something going, which odds favor after such a buy climax. If bears are strong, their first target should be 670.
short term: stock is just going up and that's why the probability of it continuing, is higher than sideways or down. does that mean you should buy? no. risk:reward is on bear side and for that we need to see weakness and consecutive bear bars closing on their lows. so even probability is low, one should look for weakness and sell it small.
medium-long term: bubbles burst eventually and when they do, market overshoots to the downside as well before osciallating around the fair price (average price). what will that be? who the f knows. if this stock does not lose at least 40% this year, i have to rethink my life choices very hard.
Have a great weekend
Last time i talked about Nvidia was 3 week ago and Nvidia at 661. Time to revisit and adjust again.
I said buy, 700 and even 800 were my targets. Market kept at it, 788 now with 823. If you made money, please leave a comment, thumps up or whatnot. I hope you enjoyed it.
Outlook
Quote from last outlook: "The thing about FOMO rallies is, no one knows where it will end and it can go so much higher and longer than anyone would have ever guessed."
If you don't think this stock is a bubble, you have not been paying enough attention to bubbles and the financial markets as whole. But it's alright, as long as you make money, no one cares.
Only question is, when will it burst. I explained my reasoning why it will continue to go up and if it stops, it might go down hard because so many people want to save their gains.
bull case: 800 was my rough target based on some measured moves, it's a big round number and market did what it had to. Good profit taking there too. Now what possibly can the reason for the bulls be to buy this? Well, it's only going up and trend is your friend. Does that mean it's smart to buy at upper trend lines, fulfilled measured move targets and what have you? No. It's plain freaking dumb from a risk:reward perspective. The next reasonable targets are 900 and 1000. I just won't try to come up with reasoning from a price action perspective here, sorry.
bear case: I did not touch any of the lines drawn 3 weeks ago. Last week we had a pullback for 10% and this week another run for 25% up. This is peak insanity of a stock and we are very close to the end. No one want's to be left holding the bag and the next pullback will be a deeper one. For that to happen, the overall market has to weaken and since we are still making new ath's evey week, no reasoning for a short here anyhow. If you dare, wait for weakness and then sell small. The risk:reward is on your side if bears can get something going, which odds favor after such a buy climax. If bears are strong, their first target should be 670.
short term: stock is just going up and that's why the probability of it continuing, is higher than sideways or down. does that mean you should buy? no. risk:reward is on bear side and for that we need to see weakness and consecutive bear bars closing on their lows. so even probability is low, one should look for weakness and sell it small.
medium-long term: bubbles burst eventually and when they do, market overshoots to the downside as well before osciallating around the fair price (average price). what will that be? who the f knows. if this stock does not lose at least 40% this year, i have to rethink my life choices very hard.
Have a great weekend
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