NQ Month End Forecast (03-20 / 03-31-23)

Month End 2 week forecast, switching over to new program in April, 23. NAZ in nearly 1 year range (white Box), POC (yellow dash), VA's (white dotted, H/L). The yellow dash lines (13500 & 11300) are extreme H/L targets. Solid yellow's are inside range KL's. Long above solid Yellow Box and Short below. I will provide limited intraday updates of shaded zones and KL's. Opposite direction trades form both, have been reliable. NAZ appears to be balance (inside white Box). Price is above POC (value) and at top of high VA (value area). Rejection above or pull back near POC may be next move. Fed Day this week and month/quarter end next week, so expect some movement as this may be the last push into the lower volume spring/summer months.

4HR with channels

Note: For those that follow, after 3 years and 500 Daily TV Post's, I will be ending the Daily Forecast & Intraday free service. I am moving to a private service that will use TradingView Charts, including my IDS Indicators. Message me if you have interest. Thanks for following and all your support.

코멘트:

O/N hit 1st Shaded, Play others as targets. Will update pre open.

코멘트:

Great book I thought I would pass along: Reading Price Charts Bar By Bar, Al Brooks. Chapter 11 covers 1st Hour of Trading and is spot on. Another add that I will include in my subscription service is the use of daily Futures Options. Check out CME/QuikStrike at CME site. QuikStrike is vital for the use of analyzing Options Puts/Calls and expected daily values. Review over the next 2 weeks as I will include the use of these products with trading strategies.

코멘트:

O/N with a 200 point drop to test VA High of 2 week forecast. Chart below, 12540 is O/N low and 12574 is VA High.

코멘트:

Notice the 12630 & 12750, these are targets on way back up. Still have some below, may see 2 way movement by Open or in Open session. Short from 1st shaded zone hit (12750) to SZ 12540 was trade to take after 1st NAZ pop up after O/N Open. Now play between 12480 and 12680 SZ's (shaded zone). Updated SZ's below.

코멘트:

If you are trading, just watch SZ to SZ, Example: 574 VA High long to SZ 630, pass next SZ up (675), reject back to VA High, no hold then may try 480, hold at 480 then back to 574, pass at 574 then may try 675 or 725. This example may actually play out as typed, I would not doubt it (may be by EOD Monday regular session).

코멘트:

Updated, Long above 12570 (570 near hit or NAZ never approaches) should work for Scalp to 630-675. Your call just a quick look and may drop after that.

코멘트:

630 Hit, will try 670-75

코멘트:

Move up stop as 670 did noy get hit and look short on stall out. Back near Open.

코멘트:

코멘트:

12670 Hit and looking sideways to lower prior to Open. Move up stop and look for Short Scalp. Updated SZ's.

코멘트:

PB to 12610 is likely, hold on Long if you are flat.

코멘트:

Mentioned the 680 - 480, may hold as range. I am in and out this week so limited updates.

코멘트:

NAZ at 12670, PB to 630 likely.

코멘트:

630 Hit

코멘트:

640 retest and drop or pop.

코멘트:

Updated Zones

코멘트:

Range for break out.

코멘트:

640 break should go to 700 after retest and confirm. If not 565

코멘트:

650 test and may drop at no pass.

코멘트:

This or drop to 600 and bounce

코멘트:

Updated Zones, a Long into Close and O/N should retry O/N High, Your Call.

코멘트:

Boring day and the O/N high is once again the high of the day. Expect the Prop into Tuesday, could be wrong but just the pattern. Will update in morning.

코멘트:

NAZ moves 100 into O/N. 12640 -12740 SZ in O/N. They always sneak it in (low volume and such). Updated SZ's

코멘트:

NAZ riding the channel line, updated zones/targets, crude did a U Turn, may be a flat one prior to Fed Day.

코멘트:

Easy trade is the Long into close and O/N when NAZ has lower Regular session. I did not take, just noting for the 100th time. The chart below will show the 2022 Fed Prop Box (4 days), 1st 2023 Box (same days) and the 3rd is my projection. Box is pop and arrow is drop, I will be tilted to the Pop/drop play (just like other 2). Stack the boxes and those 8-12 days are the main lift for past several months, why would it change now? No Fed No Rally, Go Long and ride with the FOMO's, you can Short after.

코멘트:

Updated zones, 740 is now gone.

코멘트:

Yesterday was 680-480, today look at 680-50 - 850/900. Back after Open.

코멘트:

12720 PB likely.

코멘트:

Keep in mind that the NAZ may exceed O/N high but usually will not maintain. Usually will pass, drop and try again in Dead Zone.

코멘트:

Open Range

코멘트:

Got to 40 from upper Open target, PB Zones are 760, 720

코멘트:

Push Pull is showing up, look 2 way.

코멘트:

O/N High is key and NAZ back under, typical may/usually struggles and then will magically pop through. Back Later.

코멘트:

760 and 720 Hit, Divergence on this chart, may drop more.

코멘트:

Typical O/N Prop Job and Open Selloff. Not seeing big move lower, sideways unless the Ticks get bad, 1268 maybe on low target.

코멘트:

Hard day, all indexes seem to be rolling over? May pop, if not deeper test.

코멘트:

NAZ slightest lifts are getting sold.

코멘트:

12764, bottom 1st 30M retest.

코멘트:

Dead Zone trying for O/N High.

코멘트:

764 break will go to 730

코멘트:

764 to O/N high is range to watch.

코멘트:

Updated Zones, NAZ hit PB 720 and Dead Zone did try to lift back up. May float or selloff by EOD.

코멘트:

Looks like NAZ is staying in Open Range posted earlier. Doubt that it goes to 950

코멘트:

12950 is in view, the run up is one sided and many retests will follow. Updated Zones.

코멘트:

Updated Zones for PB's. many.

코멘트:

Updated Post, POC and VA's have not changed much at all. Need to see the support or volume support the price level. Price above value is not good unless value area moves up. Could be great Short should price continue to lift with support remaining lower or far behind. I trust nothing and today was a snail move in the DZ (my magical joke).

코멘트:

O/N Zone update, 12820 Zone Hit for Short from 12890. Notice new zone above at 12885 and 788 below. May be range.

코멘트:

updated Zones

코멘트:

Yellow arrow is Trend and Box is Bracket for breakout.

코멘트:

Long on 2nd hit of lower bracket to 840. Stop 10-20 under Lower bracket and Short at 840 on no pass. Scalp Trades.

코멘트:

840 Hit, move stop and NAZ may try for 870. No Short yet.

코멘트:

Next moves, back later.

코멘트:

IDS20,for those that plan to join the Trading Group, email me at [e-mail] / The chart below will provided and the following is what to look for or start to get familiar with: When the lower indicator is above Zero and the White bars (near arrow) are rising, you would trend Long. Reverse when lower below Zero and Red bars are falling. Use Shaded Zones as targets/reverse trades.

코멘트:

70% of the time the NAZ will move within a bracket prior to break out. IDS20 will help with identifying the range and show divergence that will send the NAZ back to top/bottom. The bracket Scalp points add up while the NAZ goes nowhere.

코멘트:

White arrow is most likely a Short set up for NAZ to try lower Zones. Need to watch sideways movement at 840 and red line staying below prior red line 12855. White is above white so Long until red line play out. 4am to 5am is inside prior move (red/white).

코멘트:

Turd developing above 12850 and may try for 870, stall and fall. These Scalps need to play out and waiting is key as the games are played.

코멘트:

Range of play for break out, prior to Open.

코멘트:

Yellow Dash = POC for the day, purpleish lines are VA's Top/bottom. O/N tested yesterday Top VA. May try again in Open or under POC. Current red line did move up but we have very little movement in range. The weak slow lift is misleading as we approach Fed Decision. Believe that sell the news is the play today.

코멘트:

870 rejected and back to mid range. Watch yellow arrow or red bar of previous and white bar drop. No drop stay Long, on drop go short. Looking for NAZ to break out of VA's and yellow Box.

코멘트:

FYI 12840 is Mid Range, not a good spot to start a trade. No Trade Zone or lower probability area. Trading near upper/lower range in opposite direction is preferred.
Long at 820 and short at 870 would of been trades. These levels had been mentioned prior to the moves that have played out. Keep this in mind as the NAZ bounces around the Box/Range (most likely) most of the morning or until Fed Explosion.

코멘트:

12870, Short to lower Box for a test. 820 or 800

코멘트:

Stop under 12850 on Short.

코멘트:

12940 upper hit, NAZ may drop from here, use stop at 950 on short if still on.

코멘트:

Updated Zones, PB to 12900 likely

코멘트:

NAZ under 940 should try 830, slow day. Scalping until explosion.

코멘트:

Updated Shaded, NAZ bounced off Top Box.

코멘트:

830 is target

코멘트:

870 to top is most likely a clean out. 950 was limit or stop.

코멘트:

Updated zones

코멘트:

910 retest

코멘트:

under 910 strong short.

코멘트:

Deep negative Ticks and NAZ is hanging. Rigged.

코멘트:

Huge Option Put order volume at 12500, may be low.

코멘트:

877 held, Closing Short at 895, -25. Will reload. Strange support here.

코멘트:

Price still way above value, nothing is changing except price is rising. Price usually heads back to value, value needs to lift for long play.

코멘트:

905-10 retested, wiggle move will clean out everything.

코멘트:

Last Update prior to release

코멘트:

This before (box and arrow are projections), the usual play is the Prop FOMO lift, then the 30 plus day drop.

코멘트:

12980 will go to 13200 is stays above

코멘트:

코멘트:

Not sure, other indexes are flatish

코멘트:

If you are trading, you may want to wait until after he talks. All he has to say is anything and the NAZ will jump 500 points. Good if you are Long, bad if short so wait.

코멘트:

updated zones

코멘트:

877 again, will hold most likely

코멘트:

Staying in Range of Zones.

코멘트:

FOMO Push see Ticks

코멘트:

Important Update, NAZ will up or lower here.

코멘트:

840 is target, same as my 1st trade, funny.

코멘트:

840 taken now up and may try High, not kidding.

코멘트:

More box to fill.

코멘트:

IDS20, when 840 zone was taken out the NAZ did not hit 13200. Turned at 980 and went to lower zones. The lower has to be up for Longs and lower for Shorts. Just follow the system. Was trading and could not type. New system will be live.

코멘트:

12000 next ?

코멘트:

Price is moving toward value, always look at this.

코멘트:

Updated Zones for O/N and tomorrow.

코멘트:

CL or Crude may be a Short.

코멘트:

We are at yesterday low. Look for rallies up, stalling and falling. That is how the drops have been playing out. Highly doubt that we see any big 1 way lower days.

코멘트:

Updated Zones, NAZ trying for 780 and after with no pass may try 705, will check back in morning with the weather forecast also.

코멘트:

SaneusiRsebuN with another great call in O/N, I encourage this so join in if you would like. Rule is you have to post Entry (prior to any significant run), Target and update your exit or reverse. More mind are better and I am ultimately try to find the service/person that will let me sit back and just press buttons, this may be you. Anyway, Shaded Zones are new and have been reliable. Updated are below, the NAZ tends to target the nearest one and if no hit will change direction. This was the result yesterday of my "Important Update" comment. I will update as day plays out.

코멘트:

Regarding the 2 week "weather forecast", the chart below is what we have seen from White Arrow to upper Box, rejection and now resting on a Key Level (KL). Yellow arrow is range through Friday close, IMO.

코멘트:

Like I stated after the close, we will see rallies/lifts up, stall and drops. This is how the NAZ will decline, get use to the O/N propping up after a big down day, these are the easiest trades and have been going on the entire Bear. This offset is used to stabilize the index and create great Shorts for the Open Range (1st 30M). IDS20 below, notice lower indicator is above zero and price did take out SZ 12780, passed 788. Just expect a retest below should any SZ's above not get hit.

코멘트:

IDS250, NAZ will try 12600 prior to next attempt higher. Back later, like I stated not in as much this week or next.

코멘트:

IDS20 lower is below zero, next set up for short, expect a wiggle and any drop that does not hit lower SZ will come back up. Short development needs to play out. Anyway, 12860-12700 may be range for Open and large part of the day.

코멘트:

12850 was Bottom of yesterday Open Range (1st 30M), watch Top, Mid, Bottom of that and any rejection will send NAZ lower.

코멘트:

Watch the Diablo (NAZ Killer), may rotate around some. I have seen it pass and then go back under pretty hard. Use as Long above/Short below for Scalps.

코멘트:

12930 is upper limit today, should NAZ get passed 850-60. Short set up is still in bracket and will go with rejection under 850-60.

코멘트:

Notice lower and SZ's, squeeze developing and NAZ will shoot out to top for break or strong rejection. Short set up is still in Bracket.

코멘트:

SZ 835 is gone, rejected NAZ, updates below.

코멘트:

Anyway, this has been a good example of how a Short develops. You can see the hit in 90's, pop up in Bracket and retest at lower Bracket. Still needs to get lower but the upper range of Bracket is the Short from and not the 1st hit lower. NAZ should blow out of the bottom and you should be in from 835.

코멘트:

Can somebody tell me why these indexes are up at all? Rigged Long Trap, the NAZ will be broken down by the EOW, Back Later. 12800 holding will produce a pop up, so place stop on short at entry of just above.

코멘트:

SZ's, purple lines are VA (value area) with yellow as POC, NAZ needs to leave range.

코멘트:

920 failure look short 830 PB 1st.

코멘트:

12900 is head fake long, top yesterday 1st 30M.

코멘트:

840 is next test.

코멘트:

코멘트:

920 hit, Zones for back under.

코멘트:

waiting on retracement to end, NAZ just playing in range.

코멘트:

Strong Short 13015, edge Trade 100 point stop 5 contracts

코멘트:

Stop at 315

코멘트:

Lower low and lower high is the play. Will reload if stopped.

코멘트:

Updated Zones

코멘트:

12900 next

코멘트:

Like I aid, the NAZ will go higher 1st, stall and drop. Typical offset Bear.

코멘트:

Should break as FOMO's and BTD's are all on board, may not until later. 13080 is in view on hold.

코멘트:

Range until close.

코멘트:

Deep negative Ticks should show up for drop test, 12900 hold is a Long back up. Stop at 330

코멘트:

13030 Stop.

코멘트:

980 Break is all that is needed.

코멘트:

On Edge Trade yellow line would be Add Shorts.

코멘트:

Stop at 015

코멘트:

Closing 5 at 12970, plus 45 x 5 225

코멘트:

Play range should come back up some. Back later.

코멘트:

957 may bounce.

코멘트:

957 did bounce and will try 13003. 957 was top 1st Hour.

코멘트:

Zone Update

코멘트:

Above 957 should try top, KL to watch. This is a No Trade Zone or Bracket, hard to predict.

코멘트:

Strange here at 12970, Ticks have been constant -300ish and O/N provided much of lift, just not feeling the strength. Lately that really does not matter as the lift just shows up. Careful will check back.

코멘트:

Range is playing out

코멘트:

Range and Long above 840 or should 840 hold. CL is selling off.

코멘트:

Diablo, back to and may hold. Mentioned the NAZ will do this.

코멘트:

Bounced off Diablo.

코멘트:

Strong Short was the hold, next time. NAZ is all over the place.

코멘트:

Even though NAZ was up (due to O/N prop) the stronger volume was to the downside today, in the Open Session and not fake O/N.

코멘트:

Zones for O/N, use as targets and entries.

코멘트:

NAZ tried for 12911 and did not hit, will try again or drop to lower zone.

코멘트:

NAZ with 2nd rejection at Box Top, 3rd tomorrow or South?

코멘트:

Crude looks similar, all cylinder's South?

코멘트:

Testing this new Zone Signal that I have been using past few weeks, pretty reliable. If you compare the proceeding chart to a current chart you will see that I delete a zone once it is hit. I the add a new one that has developed. The remaining are the next or current targets. Current chart with zones is below. Keep the Diablo in your view.

코멘트:

Current as 830 was hit, look at 12900 or 1230 next. Nobody knows which is next, one will most likely get hit and then to the other. Sounds crazy but watch it play out.

코멘트:

Zone Update, NAZ in 100 point range, Dax and Crude lower, looking lower for today. Notice how NAZ took out SZ 12890 and fell back. Set would of been Long to SZ 12890 and reverse on break failure with target at SZ 12730 (long term). Since SZ hit, I have added 2 new SZ's, but keep SZ's 12950/12730 in your plans.

코멘트:

Past 2 days have had the exact same Open Range's (1st 30M), balanced. The Box is your guide, Short below and Long above with Long try to pass 12300 (3rd attempt). Thinking 1 way South Drive today. But always plan for some strange move higher at some point as the rigging stabilizing games will show up to shake you out. SZ 12825 just got hit.

코멘트:

Bigger picture

코멘트:

NAZ out of box, 12734 is target

코멘트:

Starting to get some nit picker's past few days, F Off with your BS, D Bags.

코멘트:

Crude Update, $2 lower since last chart.

코멘트:

Updated zones, 12820 and under stay Short

코멘트:

To be clear, the Short should have come from Upper SZ that got hit. If you are entering now you would expect a pop/Long up to 820 for your entry. Your Short entry is late and you have to deal with Open Range wiggle, so a Long here is most likely the correct play and not a Short (12777 is KL from few days ago)

코멘트:

X marks the spot, TLX 849 would suggest Long above and short below. Notice how low is approaching/falling from 820. Got to move quick and I can't type and scalp, back after open.

코멘트:

12823 is lower VA and may be hard to pass. 847 is OR Open Range bottom, so Long has some obstacles if trying for 850-60. This is the Short entry set up that I was mentioning (long to 820 was idea, then reverse), Open is the variable that will shake you out so hold off or use wide stop.

코멘트:

12800 Long offset pop coming through, This is where they prop up to offset the big one later.

코멘트:

12800 20 point pop was the head fake that set up the 50 point drop to 12770. This is what you need to look for as the NAZ moves from zone to zone.

코멘트:

New Zone 750 is Long to 780. The yellow arrow is the original Short Idea at 5AM, the 3 Hit at 820 was the set up for the 750 or 730 SZ try (called earlier). No hit at 730 is a Long back up to 780 or 820. You have to be super quick and this is why I can't type and trade. Eventually this just get programmed in you head and yo see it.

코멘트:

Anyway, NAZ is struggling to get lower so expect a pop up prior to big drop and look for Push/Pull PA. Best indicator of a Short day. Big picture is that NAZ is still in range of yesterday, just busywork BS as we approach Open. Take profit on Shorts until jerky PA fades.

코멘트:

Thinking this for Open, lets see.

코멘트:

Set take profits at 50 points, long from 770 is last good entry, if you missed 750, 820 needs to break for up move. 1st major stal will see a drop test today.

코멘트:

770 Long should be flat.

코멘트:

Crude came up 1.5%, Algo's follow.

코멘트:

So far

코멘트:

730 -20 is KL

코멘트:

Watch TL

코멘트:

above 722, Dead Zone will Jack this back up.

코멘트:

Still nowhere new, play the range.

코멘트:

Key Point, Notice the bottom 12730 and reaction to what 12950, Watch, no hit coming back down.

코멘트:

12920 Short was only great Short. All others had to be scalped in order to work out. You can play under 12920 in either direction.

코멘트:

Set your Take Profit at 50 points, this has been the range per move. Back later.

코멘트:

1st HR in, still nowhere. This is being held up, be careful on the Long side. Like yesterday, I waited for retracement and went short. Scalp Longs until the drop comes. Play their game. 840 seems to a problem. May try Shorting from there with 50 point stop. So long to and short from. Your call I am gone for a bit.

코멘트:

Shorting from TLX, Working TLX's are reliable for turning points, NAZ gets above a Long may work.

코멘트:

Updated

코멘트:

TLX no pass

코멘트:

Zone 780 hit, next move should be it.

코멘트:

Crude was flat now -1.5%, -4 to 0 and back under.

코멘트:

코멘트:

I believe that 13000 retest is out, may see a drop today under TLX.

코멘트:

840 trades are working, strong short under 722

코멘트:

865 or 710, NAZ still in Open Range. Another drop may be here under 788

코멘트:

Not taking this Long at 12790, only well above TLX after retest.

코멘트:

Sideways slow roller prior to next move, could float up, typical Friday. Back Later, Flat until break out.

매매 수동청산:

Will close this post here and start new Monday. Done, can't trade the Snail floaters, just too easy and make me nervous, have fun as it may go all the way to the moon. Will Short and come back in should it actually, really, for once HAPPEN. Scalping is getting old, we need a solid break out in either direction. Yesterday looked like it, but the sold all off and then some.

코멘트:

Updated Zones, NAZ may try hard to break 840-50. No go heading South.

코멘트:

IDS20, rule of thumb is 3 or so hits at Bar, no pass, opposite direction trade.

코멘트:

Single Hit sessions are whipsaw and less reliable, back to prior 3 hit session level

코멘트:

Line up lower Peaks with Price, Current session could be head fake or break out, time of day is random.

코멘트:

2 hits, needs to pass or this is a Short.

코멘트:

Tricky, 790?

코멘트:

Red Bar dropped, suggests weakness. Needs to lift past other. If does not, will see a snap drop.

코멘트:

Sorry Yellow is POC, Red is above Red.

코멘트:

820 is box bottom and what to watch.

코멘트:

Pop up looks like a Turd, may come back

코멘트:

Turd Trick so far. Good as long it stays above 820.

코멘트:

POC dropped. May hit zone above and drop.

코멘트:

Waiting for lower indicator to drop

코멘트:

TLX is blocking

코멘트:

Waiting on Ticks

코멘트:

Should drop,, again random zone.

코멘트:

Turd

코멘트:

920 above 820, this is so typical and why I pass. Hard to believe, every Friday.

코멘트:

Great Log trap, but I highly doubt it. Mentioned 950 earlier, not far.

코멘트:

At Turd top, needs fall trough.

코멘트:

Strange day, NAZ still nowhere.

코멘트:

840 miss, 920 is next

코멘트:

Friday played out well, missed one at the end. Thing is, we get tired and by late week we are zapped. I think this why Friday afternoons are a great time to sneak in a move that favors the retail mindset and not institutional/trader. Review notes, called each move but had scrambled brain from all the scalps by the end. I think this is done by design (shake traders out). O/N high was 1st prop move (as world indexes, crude) were down big. Then lowest SZ to next highest major SZ with many direction changes (all day). NAZ closes where, O/N high. A MACD indicator may show the set up for a drop, if I am looking at correct. This could be the lift prior to and we may expect additional into Monday and possibly through. 13000 is in view for another test.

Updated Zone for Sunday/Monday

코멘트:

VA & POC, not much change. Price is still high above value.