NIFTY: Casual Call, All Fall - Truth Hurts!
One of the pitfalls of not enduring the history or contemporary socio-economic conditions is the dependency on what one believes it worked. Blame it on recency bias.
Hardly three weeks back, the who's who of the Financial World pushed the rinse repeat narrative, dollar fall, larger rate cuts, higher equity and no recession.
They all looked casual in the first notice, fetched, forwarded, circulated, now recycled bin! We did prepare our 2024 macro ask me for the copy. There were hard hitting truths.
Now the bricks are falling one by one, first dollar has one of the best fight backs to the move, now flirting with the 200 DMA, in fact our popular one is not 200 but 233 DMA.
Then comes the larger rate cuts, by all counts they are more measured than what the market expects, listen to the Davo's speeches of the top CEO's not the arm chaired, pull print and paste reports.
Higher equity, if you notice the above two, the major reason for the markets to move is simply the expectation of larger rate cuts, if that premise is taken out either slowly or casually, then you would find no water in the pool to swim against. That simply blunts a peaceful negotiation between the bulls and bears. Volatility is here to stay.
No recession, this too shall pass, the 2/10 is inverted, a soft landing or hard landing. The Governments all over are printing money and that is keeping the economy up. China refused to budge this process, listen to their Premier Speach, without stimulus they print 5.3% GDP. Don't look at their equity market and measure. Few understand China, there are no exceptions.
Iran India led firing in Pakistan? one more to the bears to latch on? Red Sea, Overbought conditions, highly leveraged positions, Negative is Negative. 21124 can be a devotional number, but if prayers are the only thing left, it is time to sell.
Gap down by the clues, gap filling around 20930, week close below 21830 prints one of the bearish patterns, another three days left. For the day 22050 caps while 21880-830 attracts, sell on the rally remains the approach.
Hardly three weeks back, the who's who of the Financial World pushed the rinse repeat narrative, dollar fall, larger rate cuts, higher equity and no recession.
They all looked casual in the first notice, fetched, forwarded, circulated, now recycled bin! We did prepare our 2024 macro ask me for the copy. There were hard hitting truths.
Now the bricks are falling one by one, first dollar has one of the best fight backs to the move, now flirting with the 200 DMA, in fact our popular one is not 200 but 233 DMA.
Then comes the larger rate cuts, by all counts they are more measured than what the market expects, listen to the Davo's speeches of the top CEO's not the arm chaired, pull print and paste reports.
Higher equity, if you notice the above two, the major reason for the markets to move is simply the expectation of larger rate cuts, if that premise is taken out either slowly or casually, then you would find no water in the pool to swim against. That simply blunts a peaceful negotiation between the bulls and bears. Volatility is here to stay.
No recession, this too shall pass, the 2/10 is inverted, a soft landing or hard landing. The Governments all over are printing money and that is keeping the economy up. China refused to budge this process, listen to their Premier Speach, without stimulus they print 5.3% GDP. Don't look at their equity market and measure. Few understand China, there are no exceptions.
Iran India led firing in Pakistan? one more to the bears to latch on? Red Sea, Overbought conditions, highly leveraged positions, Negative is Negative. 21124 can be a devotional number, but if prayers are the only thing left, it is time to sell.
Gap down by the clues, gap filling around 20930, week close below 21830 prints one of the bearish patterns, another three days left. For the day 22050 caps while 21880-830 attracts, sell on the rally remains the approach.
TA Primer ping me on +96895753093 +918106170817 details @sribhashyam65 twitter handle
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