NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The past week saw a big breakout from the congestion zone of 18650 and 18760 and the Index finally crossed the big barrier at 18880 and posted a new ATH. As noted in the earlier Blogs, Index surpassed the target of 19170. The Index briefly attempted 19200 and closed at 19189.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:

• The index moved in a range of 555 points viz. between 18646 and 19201
  
• The oscillators of different time frames are showing positive signals
  
• Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
  

Expected scenarios for the ensuing week

• The Index has taken sufficient time to consolidate between 18600 &18750 before breaking out which is considered a good sign
  
• The index has made yet another base at 18650-18750 range
  
• Index may find supports at 19030,18880,18770 and the index could face resistances at multiple levels 19230, 19320,19410
  

Additional interesting observations

• As observed in the previous blog index has cleared the monthly peak levels of the past viz. 18134(Feb 23 High), 18251(Jan 23 High), and 18251(Jan 23 High),18350(Jan 22 High)
  
• The Index is entering positive territory and may remain biddish till we see a weekly close below 18760
  
• The observations of the previous Blogs repeated for quick reference with fine tuning: On weekly charts the Index has formed an irregular Inv H&S with about 850-900 points from the neckline which targets around 18900. Actually the Index followed the Fib Projected level of 19170.
  

Final Note

• The Index has stayed well above the long-term trend line and the 200 DMA at 17960
  
• Index is moving in an Upward sloping channel with top around 19310 and support at 18720 with a Pivot at 19015
  

A word of caution

• Index has made higher tweezer bottom at 18646 on weekly charts
  
• A new trend seems to be emerging and even though a new peak has been achieved, the Index seem to achieve a fresh mile stone
  
• July had seen a dream run. It remains to be seen if this would continue in the new month/quarter
  
• Expected to remain in the range of 19030-19360 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
  
• A daily close below 19030 would see the Index drift towards 18880
  
• While the Index seem to penetrate the Upper BB which is considered as unusual. Last time it happened during the market crash on account of the pandemic
  
• Need to remain vigilant as drag can be on both sides.
  
• Technically 18350-410 zone if breached on a daily closing basis, we may see stops triggered
  

#Stay Safe

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.