NIFTY April Analysis - Techn + Fundamentals

2022년 3월 24일

Basis previous channel breakouts, the third channel formation is likely.

Why downward channel, and not upward or horizontal channel?

The supply chain shocks of war and petrol price/commodity price shocks will be evident in Jan quarter, results till force downward channel

Fundamentals

USD-INR - Negatives, FII unlikely to comeback immediately
May - 0.5% hike confirmed by Fed, Market will start slowly factoring it in
Oil - To be within 70-110 USD range, will hit margins
Banks - FII offloading will offset gains due to good results - as seen in Dec q results
RBI Hike - Imminent, will see in April first week
Valuations - NIFTY at historic high PE valuation, March rerating unlike to bring it below 18


Unknowns

Massive ceasefire and lifting of sanctions in 1 month (unlikely) will see breach of 17800
COVID breakout and lockdown in Shenzhen/HK - massive supply chain shock can cause major downside
Fed increasing 0.75% due to 10% inflation in US can cause 15k to be broken