Short on Nifty

Continuing on the idea posted previously (link attached), Nifty has almost reached its first target of 11,390, which is an important support level. Now there are 2 possibilities:

1. It reverses and goes up (as shown by the orange arrow).

2. It gaps down and then fall all the way to the 100-161% Fib extension (11,192-10,783).

I feel the 2nd possibility is more likely than the first and a gap down (or a sharp move below 11,390) would confirm it.