Natural Gas Technical Convergence Signals a Major Trend Reversal

Natural Gas is showing early signs of completing a multi-year bottom and entering a potential new bullish impulse cycle.

🔹 Key Technical Highlights:

✅ A-B-C correction ended at $1.50 (Feb 2024); impulse to $4.90 may be Wave 1.

🔁 Current pullback looks like Wave 2, potentially bottoming near $2.85–3.00.

🔼 Golden Cross (50 > 200 DMA) occurred in Oct 2024 — rare long-term bullish signal.

🔃 RSI & MACD momentum are rebounding from deeply oversold zones.

📊 Volume shows signs of capitulation and early accumulation near $3.00.

📐 Chart patterns: Triangle + falling wedge breakout (on 4 hr charts) = bottoming structure.

🌀 Seasonal cycles suggest spring weakness may be ending — summer upside risk rising.

💼 COT positioning: Specs remain extremely short, while commercials are net long — a classic contrarian buy setup.

⚖️ Gold/NG Ratio has peaked and is declining — historically a bullish signal for NG heading into 2026.

🔍 Directional Bias:
Cautiously Bullish

Majority of signals are now aligned or turning bullish. A sustained breakout above $3.75–4.00 would confirm a broader trend shift.

🧭 Trade Setups:

📍 Short-Term (1–2 weeks)

Entry: $3.00–3.20 | Target: $3.75 | Stop: <$2.85

Play the bounce from oversold zone and 200DMA test

📍 Medium-Term (2–8 weeks)

Accumulate: $3.00–3.30 | Target: $4.90–5.80

Possible Wave 3 breakout pending above $4.90

📍 Long-Term (3–12+ months)

Position: $2.90–3.50 | Target: $6.20 → $9+

Post-correction rally underway; risk/reward is favorable on dips

🗓️ April 28 Candle Recap:
Bullish engulfing candle on rising volume. If bulls hold this breakout into May, the $2.85–3.00 floor may be confirmed.

🔚 Bottom Line:
NG appears to be transitioning from a long bear market into a new upcycle. The stars are aligning — just be ready for near-term chop.