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Natural Gas (NYMEX) - Weekly Update

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Natural Gas - Weekly

Bottom Line: "Big-picture" Bullish.

Repeating: The higher probability view is to label the Primary wave ((C)) decline as an ending diagonal to complete Cycle y. Ending diagonals are terminal structures. They are typically followed by swift reversals that retrace the entire length of the pattern. There’s not enough historical price data to confidently assess the wave degrees above Cycle, but a multi-year rally from the Cycle wave y low is likely to retrace the bulk of the decline from the 15.78 all-time high set in 2005.

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Natural Gas - Monthly

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Natural Gas - Daily

Bottom Line: "Big picture" bullish, but the short-term picture isn't clear.

Natural Gas extended its advance from Monday's 2.525 low and needs to trend on up in an impulsive manner to support labeling 2.525 as the wave 2 low. The next big upside hurdle to overcome is 3.113. Resistance above there is around 3.164 and then 3.264. Trade above the 3.396 rebound high should strengthen the immediately bullish case. Nearby support is at 2.911. If wave 2 is still subdividing, look for support below 2.821 around 2.783 and then 2.637-2.594. As long as 3.087 stays intact, a potential downside target sits in between at 2.719 where the two down legs from 3.396 achieve equality – a common relationship.

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The huge discrepancy between the prompt and continuation charts is due to contango and I need to see additional structural development to get my bearings. At some point, the wave counts should merge and reveal the higher probability view.