Natural Gas Trend Change Example

Natural gas has run substantially and looks like consolidation has started. How it consolidates is important for determining if it will start a bullish cycle.
This is to show structure only, not prices levels. With such a large run it would not be surprising to see a large retracement before continuing higher.
For this to be a bullish cycle it must break the previous high as shown by the green lines and arrows.
If we see a bounce then a break of the retracement low we should plan for 2 things:
I did not put lines on the chart for this one, if the $1.52 low broke quickly this would signal that $1.52 was not the cycle low. This would have to happen very fast and is less likely but still possible.
The more likely bearish possibility is the price fails to break the recent high and the breaks the retracements low. That would signal a new bearish cycle.
See charts below for reference.