Natural Gas: Fundamental and Technical Weekly Outlook.

2020년 2월 10일

This is a break down weekly analysis of Natural Gas.

Fundamental Analysis:

- Natural gas futures started the week lower, a new multi year low.
- Last week's much larger than expected government storage report is a very bearish indicator for the price.
- The latest weather models show almost zero chance of a cold pattern, which is also bearish for the price.
- Uncertainties in relation to Chinese demand on LNG continues to grow and remain bearish for the price.


Technical Analysis:

- The pattern is still a Channel Down since the November 05 high.
- The Resistance level is at 2.160.
- The MACD has turned bullish on the 1D chart.
- The MA50 is acting as a Resistance and since 2019 as long as it had, the trend was bearish. The two times it broke by a wide margin it completed a rise of around +22%. At the moment the MA50 is exactly on the Resistance level.

The above mix of indicators suggests that Natural Gas remains bearish long term. Technically as long as the price trades below the MA50 on the 1D chart, then selling on every rise is suggested. If the MA50 breaks (hence the Resistance level) we may get a +22% rise.

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