QQQ Breadth Divergence

NDX at 24,454, near fresh highs, very similar setup to QQQ - strong trend, testing the upper end of the channel

• NDFI (around 48.5) shows % of NDX stocks above 50d MA (breadth)
  
• NDTH (around 59.4) shows % of NDX stocks above 200d MA
  

1. Breadth Divergence

• While NDX is pushing highs, both NDFI & NDTH are trending lower since July
  
• This means fewer stocks are participating in the rally - leadership is narrowing
  
• Back in Feb–Mar 2025, breadth peaked & rolled over ahead of the NDX pullback
  
• That same pattern is now repeating with price at highs, breadth lagging
  

2. Current Risk

• Breadth is not confirming the new highs in NDX
  
• If NDFI/NDTH continue to weaken while NDX grinds higher, the setup becomes vulnerable to a sharp correction once leaders tire
  
• A rollover in NDFI/NDTH could precede another NDX correction, just as it did earlier in the year