LNG Week 41: 89 BCF Storage Surge Drives Mild Weather Trends

*Due to the platform's features, the charts are arranged in sequence from left to right, from the first to the Eighth chart. The charts were created by our team and based on an analysis from Bloomberg and the EIA data.

Current prices compared to price dispersion 10 days before expiration by month since 2010
[Chart-1]
The NGX25 contract is trading above its 10-day average and showing increased volatility during this period. Quotes for 2026 winter contracts remain above the upper limit of the interquartile range. 

Forward curve compared to 2020-2025
[Chart-2]
The shape of the forward curve in 2025 demonstrates stability and converges even more closely with the configurations recorded in 2023 and 2024 for comparable dates. This trend is particularly evident in contracts with delivery in three years or more, where prices are converging steadily toward historical levels.

Current stocks and forecast for next week compared to 2019-2024
[Chart-3]
According to the forecast for week 40 (September 29 – October 5), gas reserves in underground storage facilities will increase by +89 BCF, reaching 3,560 BCF, which exceeds the figure for the same period last year. The growth in reserves is supported by high production volumes and mild weather conditions. 

Weekly HDD+CDD sum based on current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks compared to 1994-2024
[Chart-4]
In week 40 of this year, HDD+CDD indicators for the continental United States are still below the average values for the last 30 years of observations, but there has been a significant increase compared to last week's forecast, which is clearly visible in the graph for 2025. The forecast for week 41 also indicates that this trend will continue: a further decline in values relative to historical levels is expected, which may ease pressure on prices by increasing demand and energy prices.
Explanation of the graph: the candles represent quantiles for 30 years from 1994 to 2024. Red dots represent 2024, green dots represent 2025, and blue dots represent the 2025 forecast. 

Weekly HDD+CDD sum based on current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks compared to 1994-2024 by region
[Chart-5]
A steady trend is observed in the leading regions: HDD+CDD values in 2025 remain below the historical averages for 1995–2024 in virtually all areas. The lag in indicators corresponds to the generally mild weather of the season and reduced energy demand for heating and cooling, which is recorded in all major regions, but there is an upward trend that has been growing from revision to revision over the last 6 days. 

Weekly total supply/demand difference compared to 2014-2024
[Chart-6]
This week, the difference between supply and demand in 2025 is at the average for 2014–2024, but lower than in 2024.
 
Number of days of supply from storage facilities
[Chart-7]
The graph shows the number of days of supply from storage facilities alone, based on current consumption levels. In 2025, February–March reserves will be at 10–18 days, which is comparable to or slightly below average. From May to August, stocks will increase to 25–35 days, which is slightly below the 10-year average. By the beginning of October 2025, the number of days of consumption from stocks will increase to 35 days, which is at the lower end of the IQR. The moderate level of storage adequacy to meet current demand creates a fundamentally tighter market, where even moderate production disruptions or minor spikes in demand can cause disproportionate price reactions, especially in late winter and early spring. 

Anomalies in weather (HDD+CDD) and fundamental factors
[Chart-8]
Overall, fundamental factors and weather anomalies are within the expected range, with no systemic deviations, except for isolated declines in LNG exports from 07-10 caused by technical work at the Sabine terminal.

*This analysis was conducted in cooperation with Anastasia Volkova, analyst of LSE.