Nasdaq Monthly Analysis - Possible Measured Move Correction

2024년 10월 18일

There may be a lot of choppy price action at the top of this trading range until price definitively starts to trend down to facilitate the correction or break out to make new highs. The reason for speculation that Nasdaq may be due for a correction is based on the current impulsive wave's similarity to the previous impulsive wave in both price and time.

If the current impulsive wave has reached exhaustion it will be an approximate measured move of the previous impulsive wave with increase factors of:

• 1.022 increase in price range (10,365÷10,142)
  
• 1.046 increase in days to climax (637÷609)
  

If the upcoming correction is also a measured move of the previous correction, using the calculated increase factors, the correction should be projected to occur over approximately 340 days (325×1.046) and decline by approximately 6,483 Points (6,344×1.022).

This would bring price to 14,309 (20,792-6,483) around the date of June 16, 2025, which would also bring price back to the trend line.

The projected correction, based the listed calculations, may retrace 77 Points below the 61.8% level (14,386-14,309). It is also worth mentioning that the previous correction retraced 76 Points below the 61.8% level (10,503-10,427). This difference in retracement below 61.8% is a factor increase of 1.013 (77÷76).

On the monthly timeframe, technical indicators such as Stochastic and RSI show price as overbought.

2024년 10월 20일

노트

It's still way too early to say if price will rally from the trend line (if the correction reaches that point) but the projected correction does line up with an unmitigated demand zone.

3월 6일

노트

Update:
Price moved up more than the original analysis (we can't really pick the top), so I'm updating this based on the same formula in the event that this is the start of the correction. Tariffs and trade wars really help with this.

If the current impulsive wave has reached exhaustion it could be an approximate measured move of the previous impulsive wave with increase factors of:

• 1.166 increase in price range (11,821÷10,142)
  
• 1.402 increase in days to climax (854÷609)
  

If the upcoming correction is also a measured move of the previous correction, using the calculated increase factors, the correction could be projected to occur over approximately 455 days (325×1.402) and decline by approximately 7,397 Points (6,344×1.166).

This would bring price to 14,851 (22,248-7,397) around the date of May 1, 2026, which would also bring price back to the trend line and possibly run liquidity under the trendline while tapping into a fresh monthly demand zone.

The projected correction, based the listed calculations, may retrace 91 Points below the 61.8% level (14,942-14,851). The previous correction retraced 76 Points below the 61.8% level (10,503-10,427). This difference in retracement below 61.8% is a factor increase of 1.197 (91÷76).

4월 3일

노트

Tariffs may be a catalyst but I still think a correction was due regardless of who became president.