MSTR Testing Golden Fib Support – Bounce Back or Break Lower?

📊 Market Breakdown
MSTR is trading at $395.13, sitting right on the edge of the Golden Fib Zone ($395–$460) after recently failing to push through resistance. Price is holding above the equilibrium (~$333) for now, but with RSI cooling from overbought 74.41 and MACD momentum turning down, the next few sessions will decide if we bounce or break.

Trend: Strong bullish trend from 2024 lows, but recent price action shows consolidation near the top.

Key Structure: Holding above equilibrium keeps the bullish structure intact, but a close below $395 risks a drop toward $333 support.

Volume: Lighter compared to recent rallies, suggesting buying pressure is slowing.

Indicators:

MACD: Bearish crossover forming.

RSI: 66.85 – coming down from overbought, showing cooling momentum.

🛒 CALLS (Bullish Scenario)
Buy Zones:

🎯 Aggressive Entry: Hold above $395 with bullish daily candle

✅ Confirmation Entry: Break & close above $420

Take Profits:
1️⃣ $450 – Golden Fib Zone top
2️⃣ $490 – Minor resistance before supply
3️⃣ $542 – Premium/Supply Zone target

Stop-Loss: $385

Why This Works: Holding $395 and breaking $420 could spark a push back into the high $400s within 2–3 weeks.

🛑 PUTS (Bearish Scenario)
Sell Zones:

🚨 Aggressive Entry: Daily close below $395

📉 Breakdown Entry: Drop under $385 with momentum

Take Profits:
1️⃣ $333 – Equilibrium zone
2️⃣ $300 – Psychological support
3️⃣ $233 – Discount/Demand Zone

Stop-Loss: $410

Why This Works: Losing $395 puts MSTR at risk for a quick trip to $333, and possibly lower, as momentum shifts bearish.

🔍 Technical Highlights
Golden Fib Zone Test: This level is a decision point — bounce here is bullish, but a close below turns the chart bearish short-term.

Macro Watch: MSTR is heavily tied to Bitcoin’s price movement — BTC weakness = MSTR weakness.

⏳ Option Expiration Strategy:

1 Week: Short-term bounce or rejection plays around $395

2–3 Weeks: Swing toward either $450+ or $333 depending on breakout direction