Moderna (MRNA) Stock Plummets on Weak Sales Outlook

9월 12일

Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) is facing tough times as its stock dropped over 11% during Thursday’s premarket trading session. The biotech giant, known for its breakthrough COVID-19 vaccine, released a disappointing sales outlook for the upcoming years, sparking a significant sell-off among investors.

Weak Sales Outlook and Pipeline Adjustments
Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) has projected sales between $2.5 billion and $3.5 billion for 2025, a far cry from the multi-billion dollar revenues seen during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. This forecast falls below analysts’ expectations, who anticipated revenues of $3.27 billion for 2024 and $3.74 billion for 2025.

The company’s revenue has been declining since the pandemic boom, with 2023 expected to be the lowest annual revenue since its first COVID-19 vaccine launch in late 2020. Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) is now betting on its 10 new product launches by 2027 to drive an average annual growth rate of 25% in revenue between 2026 and 2028. However, Moderna CFO James Mock highlighted the uncertainty of the COVID-19 and RSV markets, admitting that these new products may not contribute significant revenue until later years.

Moderna’s strategic pivot includes significant cost-cutting measures, with plans to slash $1.1 billion in expenses by 2027. This includes reducing R&D spending from an expected $4.8 billion this year to between $3.6 billion and $3.8 billion by 2027. Despite these reductions, the company is still committed to advancing its pipeline, which includes new mRNA vaccines against RSV, norovirus, and cancer, among others.

Challenges Ahead: Competition and Pipeline Delays
Moderna’s market position is increasingly challenged by competitors like Pfizer (PFE) and GSK (GSK), who are also pursuing expanded approvals for their RSV vaccines in the same high-risk adult age groups. Moderna’s recent decision to drop its request for fast-track approval of its standalone flu vaccine reflects its strategic realignment towards combination shots that offer protection against multiple viruses, including COVID-19 and influenza.

The company's standalone flu shot, mRNA-1010, recently met immune-response targets in clinical trials, but it's still a long way from regulatory approval. Moderna's CEO, Stéphane Bancel, remains optimistic about the company's robust drug development capabilities, boasting that Moderna's rate of success from phase one to phase three trials is “six times higher” than the industry average.

Technical Outlook
Technically, Moderna's stock price is reflecting the weak fundamentals. The stock is down 10.45% in premarket trading, which adds to the already bearish momentum. On Wednesday, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) was 37, indicating a weakened position. The current dip below the $73 mark will likely push the RSI further into oversold territory, raising concerns about heightened selling pressure.

The critical technical level to watch is the $60 pivot, a major support zone that aligns with the September 2020 lows. Should Moderna’s stock breach this support, it could trigger a cascade of selling as investors lose confidence, potentially leading to a more severe downturn. This level has historically served as a strong base, and a breakdown could erase gains made over the last four years.

What’s Next for Moderna?
While Moderna’s long-term prospects hinge on the successful launch of its new mRNA-based therapies, the immediate outlook appears bleak. The company’s efforts to expand into new markets like RSV and flu vaccines are promising, but the revenue impact of these products won’t be felt until at least 2025. Investors should brace for volatility as the company navigates through a post-pandemic market landscape with reduced COVID-19 vaccine sales and increasing competition.

For now, Moderna's technical indicators signal caution. The stock's proximity to major support zones and the bearish momentum could prompt further declines if market sentiment does not improve. Investors are advised to keep a close eye on how the company’s strategic decisions unfold and whether Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) can successfully deliver on its ambitious pipeline goals in the face of growing market challenges.