Comparing SPX performance vs ISM Manufacturing Index

2020년 1월 18일

It is interesting to note that there is a current clear divergence between the SPX and the ISM Manufacturing Index, that started back in January 2019 when the Fed stopped raising rates. The SPX has shot higher, while the ISM has continued to drop crossing below 50 and therefore indicating a contraction. In the past this drop below 50 has lead to a stock market selloff. Maybe the economy isn't as great as some people make it out to be?

2022년 6월 28일

노트

It is interesting to note that the ISM peaked in Q1 2021 and began to decline, while the SPX continued higher still driven by QE and artificially low rates. Now the SPX is rolling over as QE is pulled back and rates are increased, such that it now is responding to the pullback in the ISM. The ISM is still well above 50 though, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out.