Lean Cattle. Convincing myself it will go higher.

2021년 5월 4일

It looks really good to me.

I have an incredible lazy streak. It's possible this only appeals to me so that I can take some action and stop paying attention every day. Obviously, this is not the ideal characterization of a profitable trader, but I'm still doing a good job convincing myself it's a high probability outcome.

Sooner or later I'm going to become clever enough to be useful to myself. But, then you might not like me anymore :(.

---

I could also reason one of two things:

1) Price has come down this far : It's a good buy.
2) Price has come down this far: It could go lower.

Unless, there is something like a cow-pox I feel like prices should go higher. I don't think there will be a cow-pox. Just using it as a stand in for 'big-unpredictable-market-specific-catastrophe'.

So door #1 says the .5 level is good enough for me, and I'm thinking it will go back up. In fact, I don't think it will go down, and I think it's a good price possibly for the next full calendar year.

Door #2 says I think it's possible price comes lower, and I think it will come lower.

----

I really don't think #2 is the door most people will open. I think the idea that price might not be this low for another entire year would be enough to make any forward thinking meat distributer want to use at least a good portion of there liquidity in the markets over the next few days. Actually this has been happening as evidence from what the consolidation is telling us.

2021년 5월 4일

노트

Lean Cattle still getting dropped. Down at 114.650 currently.

2021년 5월 4일

노트

Live Cattle*