$Nikkei / $JPN225 At Critical Level; Favors Decline | $JPY #BOJ

TECHNICAL SYNOPSIS:

1 - Predictive/Forecasting Model defines 20780 as critical high/High-prob. reversal level

2 - Technical analysis would define 20961 as probable resistance level based on June 1997 and April 2000 structural level and last month's failure to break above same level.

3 - Current bar carves out a lower-low relative to last month's bar

Net Bias = BEARISH

BEARISH SCENARIO - 50% FIB:

Decline would likely seek Fibonacci handles at 38.6%, 50.0% or 61.8% significant retracement level. However, first retracement offers little to no past structural levels for reaction when compared to significant pivot range at the corresponding 50.0% Fib retracement level.


INVALIDATION:

Invalidation would occur if price broke above and closed above 20961. For now, market remains taut to the upside.


OVERALL:

Bears are gaining ground, defending a historical 20961 level. Market is taut to the upside, while technical profile is tilting towards bearish favors.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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11 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As forecast 7 months ago, price rolled according to the dashed arrow, now nearing probable support at 14,000, as illustrated in the following chart::

Best,

David Alcindor