Japan GSP YOY - How can we predict next Quarter change

2월 22일

Japan GDP Year on Year

Today tried to predict the quarter by quarter change, But we find it difficult by existing model of chart prediction.

How are we going to predict the Next quarter GDP growth change ? By using EW ? not possible ? Then ?

Ans: Trading Economics' global macro models
are used to make forecasts for economic indicators.
These models use a variety of factors, including analysts' expectations,
correlations between countries, and logical relationships between indicators


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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Japan expanded 1.20 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the same quarter of the previous year. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Japan averaged 1.71 percent from 1981 until 2024, reaching an all time high of 9.40 percent in the first quarter of 1988 and a record low of -9.70 percent in the second quarter of 2020.


source: Cabinet Office, Japan

2월 22일

액티브 트레이드

But for us using charts for predicting price , We find little different, so we can have our model for forecasting.

here on the chart, The average line never acting as the reaction point, but the 50 % line is actually. This is the 50 percent of the YOY changes line ( max to min ) , used as the trend line.

So as per the Traders perspective, we assume it has to go to 1.8-2.4 value during next quarter 1,2. :)