Bullish Case for Coffee

Maximum potential output from the 2015 coffee crop at Brazilian cooperative Cocatrel is already 30% below production in 2013, when 1.5M bags were harvested, and outlook is "worsening every day" without rain, technical director Jorge Luis Piedade Nogueira told Reuters on Tuesday.

In August, Cocatrel said drought in the first quarter of the year would have an extended impact and reduce the 2015 crop's potential by 15% to 20%t from 2013 output.

“With no significant rainfall in September, an alarming situation with substantial losses for 2015 is projected,” Brazil’s National Coffee Council.

Global coffee production could fall short of demand in the season that began Oct. 1 by the largest amount since the crop year ended in 2006, the International Coffee Organization said in July.

“Brazil is on target to potentially have two deficit years,” said Brian Kurtzer, senior portfolio manager at Durham, N.C.-based Verity Asset Management, which manages about $410 million. “The path of least resistance is still on the upside.”

New Harvard School of Public Health study identified six new genetic variants associated with habitual coffee drinking.

Since 1990, Asia has experienced the most dynamic growth in coffee consumption in the world, growing by an average
rate of 4% per annum.
Coffee

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