Nasdaq Composite sideways correction, rising to 13500 by Feb2021

2020년 11월 10일

Nasdaq Composite has just finished or about to finish the Wave 2 correction of the larger Wave (3) of the larger Wave 5. Some may identify the 2 Sep to 9 Nov 2020 correction as a triangle, but triangles usually appear in the later part of a larger wave, like the second half of wave 3 or wave 4 or in the case of diagonal triangle, wave 5. This is obviously the Wave 2 of the larger Wave (3), the bullish run from March 2020 is fairly young, still has huge space and time to grow, because Wave (3) are quite often extended and could never be the shortest wave. Therefore the 2 Sep to 9 Nov 2020 correction should be correctly typed as a WXY double three or WXYXZ triple three.

Double three and triple threes are the less well known types of Elliott Wave correction, but they appear more frequently in the 21st century than 40 or 100 years ago. Perhaps because people today are less patient and trade much faster than 1920s traders, there's often not enough time for the classical 5-wave Wave A and Wave C to develop, instead we get the sideways 3-3-3 WXY correction. There might be another retest of 10800 support within the next 2 weeks, forming the WXYXZ triple three correction.



The long term trend of Nasdaq Composite is extremely bullish, in Oct 2020 IXIC bounced up nicely from the 20-week simple moving average, confirming the uptrend is unharmed. I expect more positive news about Corona virus vaccine in November and December 2020, the Christmas season has a statistically 73% probability of being bullish starting from 1950. If we start counting from 1990, December has a staggering 77% probability of bull.


The top of the small scale Fibonacci channel converges with the 1.618 extension of the older large Fibonacci channel in Jan and Feb 2021, so the converging point of 13500 is a very valid target. As the Fed has promised to keep the interest rate close to zero for the foreseeable future in Aug 2020, the huge bull of American stocks especially tech stocks will continue. 16000 in latter 2021 seems reasonable, we will probably get 20000 in 2022 and 30000 in 2023 or 2024.