Note: You can click the Yellow markers in the chart and read the Daily Updates for that day.
2) President Tests Positive for COVID, this announcement comes afterhours sending futures to the negative. Eventually he is checked into the hospital for close monitoring.
5) Just a few days after the COVID announcement, the president returns to the whitehouse touting the effectiveness of the drugs used to combat the virus.
6) After pushing for stimulus agreements from the hospital, the President abruptly declares they would no longer seek a stimulus agreement until after the election. This reverses an otherwise positive day for the market.
8) Some positive messages from the President and congress renew hopes for stimulus. This back-and-forth news on the stimulus becomes a hallmark for the month.
12) Although a positive day for the market, this is the pivot day, so it’s worth taking a look at some key signals from the day.
Positive
+Huge gain on increased volume.
+IBD Follow-thru Day for Nasdaq.
+All my daily update trend lines are on upward slope.
Negative
-ADVQ/DECLQ is downward trend last two days.
-T-Bond Yield Spreads peaked 10/5, trended down.
-Put/Call Ratio back near 0.60.
Interesting
* This is also pivot day where Biden/Trump polling starts to edge back to Trump.
* From this point XLK moves from the 2nd best sector (behind XLU) in the month to worst by end of month.
* XLU remains relatively strong thru October.
13) A sideways, inside day with poor closing range.
14) Still trading inside Monday’s range, but down on lower volume. FSLY surprise guidance announcement after hours tanks the stock price by 30%.
16) 4 out of 5 of my trend lines in my daily updates show a negative expectation
19) All sectors are negative with XLU performing best
20) From this point, daily volume shrinks except two big sell-off days. SNAP is up 30% after hours following earnings beat.
21) Growth favorites (PTON, DDOG, FVRR) are pivoting downward.
23) The week ended with a character change, two days of high closing range, lifting hopes for Monday.
26) Hopes are dashed with weekend news. Pandemic reaching new heights in Europe, and SAP revises guidance down impacting many Enterprise software stocks. This is the first close below 21d EMA since September.
27) Index is up, but there are more decliners than advancers. Growth stocks rotating winners/losers, as if investors are searching for strength.
28) Mega-caps (all companies above 200B) lose on the day. All sectors down. Ouch.
29) AMZN, AAPL, FB, SHOP offer positive earnings, but sell-off after hours as new lockdowns in Europe are announced overnight.
30) Ouch. Ouch.
So here are some broader observations as we close the month of October:
A) First the facts. -2.29% loss on the month (not as bad as September). The monthly candle has a tall upper wick, 33% red lower body and an 8% closing range.
B) The VIX went past the highpoint in September and reached the highest point since June.
C) XLU (Utilities ETF from S&P500) was defying gravity, holding up better compared to most sectors as well as the Nasdaq. However, this past week it has come down with the rest of the market.
D) XLE (Energy ETF from S&P500) propped up the market 3 times after oil announcements only to deflate again the following days.
E) The 21d EMA is still above the 50d MA for the Nasdaq. That 21d EMA is below the 50d MA for the other major indexes. It is also trending to go below on the Nasdaq in the first week of November.
2) President Tests Positive for COVID, this announcement comes afterhours sending futures to the negative. Eventually he is checked into the hospital for close monitoring.
5) Just a few days after the COVID announcement, the president returns to the whitehouse touting the effectiveness of the drugs used to combat the virus.
6) After pushing for stimulus agreements from the hospital, the President abruptly declares they would no longer seek a stimulus agreement until after the election. This reverses an otherwise positive day for the market.
8) Some positive messages from the President and congress renew hopes for stimulus. This back-and-forth news on the stimulus becomes a hallmark for the month.
12) Although a positive day for the market, this is the pivot day, so it’s worth taking a look at some key signals from the day.
Positive
+Huge gain on increased volume.
+IBD Follow-thru Day for Nasdaq.
+All my daily update trend lines are on upward slope.
Negative
-ADVQ/DECLQ is downward trend last two days.
-T-Bond Yield Spreads peaked 10/5, trended down.
-Put/Call Ratio back near 0.60.
Interesting
* This is also pivot day where Biden/Trump polling starts to edge back to Trump.
* From this point XLK moves from the 2nd best sector (behind XLU) in the month to worst by end of month.
* XLU remains relatively strong thru October.
13) A sideways, inside day with poor closing range.
14) Still trading inside Monday’s range, but down on lower volume. FSLY surprise guidance announcement after hours tanks the stock price by 30%.
16) 4 out of 5 of my trend lines in my daily updates show a negative expectation
19) All sectors are negative with XLU performing best
20) From this point, daily volume shrinks except two big sell-off days. SNAP is up 30% after hours following earnings beat.
21) Growth favorites (PTON, DDOG, FVRR) are pivoting downward.
23) The week ended with a character change, two days of high closing range, lifting hopes for Monday.
26) Hopes are dashed with weekend news. Pandemic reaching new heights in Europe, and SAP revises guidance down impacting many Enterprise software stocks. This is the first close below 21d EMA since September.
27) Index is up, but there are more decliners than advancers. Growth stocks rotating winners/losers, as if investors are searching for strength.
28) Mega-caps (all companies above 200B) lose on the day. All sectors down. Ouch.
29) AMZN, AAPL, FB, SHOP offer positive earnings, but sell-off after hours as new lockdowns in Europe are announced overnight.
30) Ouch. Ouch.
So here are some broader observations as we close the month of October:
A) First the facts. -2.29% loss on the month (not as bad as September). The monthly candle has a tall upper wick, 33% red lower body and an 8% closing range.
B) The VIX went past the highpoint in September and reached the highest point since June.
C) XLU (Utilities ETF from S&P500) was defying gravity, holding up better compared to most sectors as well as the Nasdaq. However, this past week it has come down with the rest of the market.
D) XLE (Energy ETF from S&P500) propped up the market 3 times after oil announcements only to deflate again the following days.
E) The 21d EMA is still above the 50d MA for the Nasdaq. That 21d EMA is below the 50d MA for the other major indexes. It is also trending to go below on the Nasdaq in the first week of November.
