Trend lines drawn from the 10/12 pivot day (20d), 10/30 bottom (6d), 11/2 (5d), and today 11/6 (1d).
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Friday, November 6, 2020
I don't know why you say goodbye, I say Hello
Facts:+0.04% higher, Volume higher, Closing range: 86%, Body: 14%
Good: Recovered from morning lows and closed near highs
Bad: Nothing, the index needed a pause
Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low
Candle: Bullish thick body candle after a gap up
Advance/Decline: 0.63, three declining stocks for every two advancing stock
Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.46%) and Technology (XLK +0.35%) were top. Energy (XLE -2.79%) was the worst performing.
Expectation: Sideways
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Market Overview
The morning started with a pullback in the markets but then the indexes, including the Nasdaq rallied back to yesterday’s highs after better than expected employment data. It was not a stellar day of gains like the previous three days, but it was a good pause to cool off from one of the hottest weeks since April. The index ended the day with a +0.04% gain and a +9.01% gain for the week. The candle has a high tight body of 14% and a closing range of 86%. The bulls win the day, but any gains were focused to a smaller slice of the market. Declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks at a 3 to 2 ratio.
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Indexes and Sectors
The S&P 500 (SPX -0.03%), Dow Jones Industrial (DJI -0.24%) turned in minor losses while the Russell 2000 (RUT -0.96%) fell back from stellar gains the previous day. The S&P500 chart shows a doji candlestick, which can be a sign of reversal. Given the huge gains this week, I view it as showing a pause and possibly sideways move in the near term, especially given other indicators we look at.
Consumer Staples (XLP +0.46%) was the top sector of the day while Technology (XLK +0.35%) was not far behind. Materials (XLB +0.25%) slowed a bit but continues an uptrend powered by an increase in commodities prices. Energy (XLE -0.64%) started the day on the top, opening with a 1.4% gain, but quickly came back down and ended the day at the bottom of the sector list.
The VIX volatility index decreased -9.86% and continued to trade in the late September and October range.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Bonds
Treasury Bond yields increased for the day and the 10Y-2Y and 30Y-10Y spread increased after a few days of declines.
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Market Leaders
Of the big four mega-caps, only Microsoft (MSFT +0.19%) ended the days with gains although it did take a round-trip to fill the gap from Wednesday to Thursday. Apple (AAPL -0.29%), Amazon (-0.32%) and Google (GOOG -0.09%) had losses. Apple successfully tested its 50d MA. Apple and Google had intraday positive moves relative to the market.
Growth stocks had mixed results. Square (SQ +13.04%) was a big winner after beating earnings expectations and showing opportunity for more growth. Cloudflare (NET +11.16%) got a boost from their earnings beat, gaining over 20% at one point in the day before settling at 11.16% gains. UBER (UBER +6.94%) is also up after earnings. Dr. Horton (DHI -3.15%) had a second day of losses as it heads into earnings next week. Zynga (ZNGA -4.64%) continued to retreat despite having beat expectations.
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Looking ahead
Not much economic news is scheduled for Monday, although we will have more updates on the election over the weekend. McDonald’s (MCD +0.12%) and Beyond Meat (BYND -0.11%) are among some of the earnings releases scheduled for Monday. Not sure if the two will show any impact after the relationship ended in June, but it certainly makes me hungry for a burger (the real kind).
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Trends, Support and Resistance
The six-day trend from the 10/30 bottom and five-day trend are both pointing to an aggressive +3.14% gain which would make new all-time highs for the Nasdaq. Following the one-day trend would result in a more modest +1.02% gain that would take the index past the 10/12 pivot which is a resistance area for now.
The trend line from the 10/12 pivot is slowly changing its slope but still points at -5.41% loss. That is not likely to happen unless some negative news changes the market context. The more likely point, if a significant pull back occurs, would be above the October Support area and the 21d EMA which would be a -3.31% loss.
It seems we are clear of the July support area for the time being. Breaking through that support area would be dangerous as there is not much trading activity in the second half of the year in between that line and the June support area of 10,000. That area is now well below today’s close and as we approach new highs, I will remove it from the daily notes.
I hope you have a safe and relaxing weekend. Get yourself mentally prepared for another week of unexpected positive or negative moves as the election roles on.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Friday, November 6, 2020
I don't know why you say goodbye, I say Hello
Facts:+0.04% higher, Volume higher, Closing range: 86%, Body: 14%
Good: Recovered from morning lows and closed near highs
Bad: Nothing, the index needed a pause
Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low
Candle: Bullish thick body candle after a gap up
Advance/Decline: 0.63, three declining stocks for every two advancing stock
Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.46%) and Technology (XLK +0.35%) were top. Energy (XLE -2.79%) was the worst performing.
Expectation: Sideways
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Market Overview
The morning started with a pullback in the markets but then the indexes, including the Nasdaq rallied back to yesterday’s highs after better than expected employment data. It was not a stellar day of gains like the previous three days, but it was a good pause to cool off from one of the hottest weeks since April. The index ended the day with a +0.04% gain and a +9.01% gain for the week. The candle has a high tight body of 14% and a closing range of 86%. The bulls win the day, but any gains were focused to a smaller slice of the market. Declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks at a 3 to 2 ratio.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Indexes and Sectors
The S&P 500 (SPX -0.03%), Dow Jones Industrial (DJI -0.24%) turned in minor losses while the Russell 2000 (RUT -0.96%) fell back from stellar gains the previous day. The S&P500 chart shows a doji candlestick, which can be a sign of reversal. Given the huge gains this week, I view it as showing a pause and possibly sideways move in the near term, especially given other indicators we look at.
Consumer Staples (XLP +0.46%) was the top sector of the day while Technology (XLK +0.35%) was not far behind. Materials (XLB +0.25%) slowed a bit but continues an uptrend powered by an increase in commodities prices. Energy (XLE -0.64%) started the day on the top, opening with a 1.4% gain, but quickly came back down and ended the day at the bottom of the sector list.
The VIX volatility index decreased -9.86% and continued to trade in the late September and October range.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Bonds
Treasury Bond yields increased for the day and the 10Y-2Y and 30Y-10Y spread increased after a few days of declines.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Market Leaders
Of the big four mega-caps, only Microsoft (MSFT +0.19%) ended the days with gains although it did take a round-trip to fill the gap from Wednesday to Thursday. Apple (AAPL -0.29%), Amazon (-0.32%) and Google (GOOG -0.09%) had losses. Apple successfully tested its 50d MA. Apple and Google had intraday positive moves relative to the market.
Growth stocks had mixed results. Square (SQ +13.04%) was a big winner after beating earnings expectations and showing opportunity for more growth. Cloudflare (NET +11.16%) got a boost from their earnings beat, gaining over 20% at one point in the day before settling at 11.16% gains. UBER (UBER +6.94%) is also up after earnings. Dr. Horton (DHI -3.15%) had a second day of losses as it heads into earnings next week. Zynga (ZNGA -4.64%) continued to retreat despite having beat expectations.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Looking ahead
Not much economic news is scheduled for Monday, although we will have more updates on the election over the weekend. McDonald’s (MCD +0.12%) and Beyond Meat (BYND -0.11%) are among some of the earnings releases scheduled for Monday. Not sure if the two will show any impact after the relationship ended in June, but it certainly makes me hungry for a burger (the real kind).
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Trends, Support and Resistance
The six-day trend from the 10/30 bottom and five-day trend are both pointing to an aggressive +3.14% gain which would make new all-time highs for the Nasdaq. Following the one-day trend would result in a more modest +1.02% gain that would take the index past the 10/12 pivot which is a resistance area for now.
The trend line from the 10/12 pivot is slowly changing its slope but still points at -5.41% loss. That is not likely to happen unless some negative news changes the market context. The more likely point, if a significant pull back occurs, would be above the October Support area and the 21d EMA which would be a -3.31% loss.
It seems we are clear of the July support area for the time being. Breaking through that support area would be dangerous as there is not much trading activity in the second half of the year in between that line and the June support area of 10,000. That area is now well below today’s close and as we approach new highs, I will remove it from the daily notes.
I hope you have a safe and relaxing weekend. Get yourself mentally prepared for another week of unexpected positive or negative moves as the election roles on.
