업데이트됨

Perspective

When in doubt, zoom out. Never rush into conclusions.
And when a chart troubles you, change your perspective.

The majority of ideas posted here were ultra-bearish when Bitcoin reached 16k levels.

The majority of ideas posted here were ultra-bearish when SPX reached 3.5k levels.

The trader's were not to blame. The charts were dreadful. And everybody agreed.

Because everybody was looking only at price levels.
Nobody looked the chart from a different perspective.
And almost everybody was wrong.

And just like that, everything made sense.

I have been working on a new KST-Based MACD indicator, a successor to the one I posted.

This new indicator is warning us about Bitcoin...

And if we get some perspective:

We are warned about equities as well...

But there is no one single perspective:

Bearishness in equities is a complex conversation...

I have talked many many times about the late 1980s.

This is what we may be witnessing with equities right now...

Equities are not inherently problematic.

It is just that some of them may outperform others...

While Buffett may be right, his sayings may take many years to play out.

Don't forget to stay calm and be patient.

Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori

Extra Chart: The 1986-1994 period comes up again.

I've come to be a gold hater...

노트

Take a good look at the indicators below:

IDENTICAL WOW

노트

The 2022 "Recession" induced by a rapidly increasing dollar.

This chart is like SPX measured in Euro.

And before you talk about the yield curve...

In a period of progressively higher yields (QT), the yield curve is positively correlated to dollar strength. The yield curve is relatively horizontal. A positive yield curve leads to a higher dollar (rare dollar)

In QT, yield rate dictates dollar cost. Dollar as an investment.

In a period of progressively lower yields (QE), the yield curve is negatively correlated to dollar strength. Yield curve manipulation is extreme in height and effect. A negative yield curve (money destruction) leads to a higher dollar (abundant dollar)

In QE, yield curve dictates dollar cost. Dollar as a burden / must-get-rid-of-dollar market.

Recessions are relative. Not all investments drop at the same time. There will always be a way to profit, the difficulty may increase.

노트

Equities don't care about high / low yield rates. It is how you combine a bond/equity investment. In the QE world the Equity / Bond correlation is positive. Now it is not. You must change the way you invest.

From the charts above it seems that we have already lived through a stagflation period. And that was the 2000-2020 period. In the charts it is very similar to the 1960s stagflation.

What if, the stagflation period we talk about, has already passed?
And what if the recession we are sure to live through takes years before it comes up?

노트

SPX is significantly underbought.
In fact, price is as average as it gets.

While the standard SPX chart may be hard to analyze, a relative-price chart clears the picture significantly.

노트

Do you want to see a bullish SPX chart?
And more specifically, a long-term bullish divergence printed into SPX.

Word of advice: Don't be too bearish or too bullish.

As an analyst, you must be dynamic in your presentations. When a bull market is formed, try to pinpoint for how long it can sustain. Being too bearish too soon in equities, may steer investors away from some profitable trades. Going long in Equities has been a viable option for many months now. Keep analyzing and alert others when a trend begins to show signs of weakness.

A prediction is accurate when it is time and price specific. Being bearish in equities in general is not a good attitude towards investment strategies.

Look at Bitcoin.

Bitcoin may have a hard time making all-time highs. SPX on the other hand shows bullish, oversold signs.

노트

The 2023 equity run is now over. Prepare to suffer.

노트

Pro tip. Never measure in Dollars. Dollar is lying.
Measure Crude Oil in Gold price, SPX in PPIACO or CPIAUCSL, Gold in PPIACO.

And as spy_master said, don't measure Bitcoin in Dollars.

Dollar has to lie to survive.

노트

DXY to trash

노트

A classical analysis on a classical commodity.