Trend lines drawn from the 10/12 pivot day (18d), 10/29 (5d), and today 11/4 (1d).
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Wednesday, November 4, 2020
You shake my nerves and you rattle my brain
Facts: +3.85% higher, Volume higher, Closing range: 73%, Body: 55%
Good: Held near top of the range, back above 21d EMA, 50d MA and support areas
Bad: Gap up could, swing the other way to cover gap
Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low
Candle: Bullish candle after a gap up, upper wick slightly longer
Advance/Decline: 1.16, About same amount of advancers and decliners
Sectors: Health (XLV +4.44%), Communication Services (XLC +4.31%), Technology (XLK +3.89%) were at the top. Industrials (XLI -1.03%), Financials (XLF -1.17%), Utilities (XLU -1.50%) and Materials (XLB -1.70%) were all losers.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
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Market Overview
What a difference a day can make. The Nasdaq reacted sharply to a turn in sentiment toward election results when it became apparent the “Blue wave” would not happen as originally thought. Even as the presidential election remains undecided, it seems that the Republicans will retain control of the Senate, putting a damper on any radical changes in the near-term. The index responded with a gap up and turned in a +3.85% gain on a 12% increase in volume. The candle is a nice thick bullish green with a 55% body and a 73% closing range. Declining stocks were about the same amount as Advancing stocks representing the rotation for previous bets that investors were making on election.
This is the highest high the Nasdaq turned in since October 19, and closing the index back above the key levels of the 21d EMA and the 50d MA as well as the September and October support levels marked on the chart. It is reasonable to expect some pullback, but hopefully we can hold above these levels, adding strength to a new rally.
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Indexes and Sectors
The S&P 500 (SPX +2.21%), Dow Jones Industrial (DJI +1.35%) did not do as well as the Nasdaq but did turn in decent gains. The Russell 2000 (RUT +0.05%) was left behind a bit as investors shifted back to larger capital businesses. The S&P 500 closed above its 50d MA while the DJI remains just below this key line.
Health (XLV +4.48%), Communication Services (XLC +4.30%), Technology (XLK +3.89%) were the top sectors, which would benefit from at least a mixed party government, if not a Republican president. Industrials (XLI -1.03%), Financials (XLF -1.17%), Utilities (XLU -1.50%) and Materials (XLB -1.70%) were all losers. All of these losing sectors were doing very well ahead of the election, with expectations of the “blue wave” result.
The VIX volatility index decreased -16.57% putting it back in the late September and October range.
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Bonds
Treasury Bond yields decreased on the day, as investors bought up the bonds in wake of changed expectations. The 10Y-2Y yield spread had a pullback but is still within an upward channel. I will keep an eye on this one over the next few days.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Market Leaders
The mega-cap stocks did well except for large Financial stocks. The big four all had great gains. Microsoft (MSFT +4.82%), Google (GOOG +5.99%) and Amazon (AMZN +6.32%) are all trading above their 50d MA and 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL +4.08%) is above the 21d EMA and heading toward the 50d MA. They all have relative candles showing strength compared to the index. That is the type of strength that is needed to put energy into a rally. I will keep watching for these four to continue leading the market higher.
There was broad support for favorite growth stocks, with many having big gains on the day. Facebook (FB +8.32%), Datadog (DDOG +8.30%), PayPal (PYPL +8.05%), JD.com (JD +8.01%) are a few of the big winners of the day. Paycom (PAYC +7.66%) is up another 4% after hours after announcing earnings beat expectations. Zynga (ZNGA +3.79%) missed estimates in their earnings release and is down -1.26% after hours. That is a lot less punishment than expectation misses in recent earnings announcements. Uber (UBER +14.59%) had a huge gain after winning legislation that will allow them to continue using contract drivers in California.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Looking ahead
Tomorrow will bring new Initial Jobless Claims data, following a less than expected change in ADP Nonfarm Employment data. It will be important to watch the employment data closely after the pandemic hits new heights. In the afternoon, the Fed will announce any changes in interest rates. The expectation for interest rates is to remain unchanged based on earlier messages from the Fed.
Cloudflare (NET +5.79%), Peloton (PTON +6.28%), Alibaba (BABA +3.55%), Square (SQ +8.27%), and Uber are all popular growth stocks that have earnings announcements scheduled for tomorrow.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Trends, Support and Resistance
There are three trend lines pointing to quite different spots on the chart. The first is the one-day trend that points to another +0.93% gain. That feels nearly sideways given the past two days of gains and cooling off a bit would be good for the market.
Likewise, the 5-day trend points to a -0.89% that is also sideways in the context of two days of big gains. A -0.89% pullback would not even touch the gap from this morning. The trend from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -5.10% loss. Unless sentiment changes dramatically, that does not seem likely for tomorrow.
I will add another trend line from the 10/30 bottom for the next update.
It seems we are clear of the July support area for the time being. Breaking through that support area would be dangerous as there is not much trading activity in the second half of the year in between that line and the June support area of 10,000. That area is now -12.56% below today’s close and I will remove the possibility of that outcome if we hold above support for the next few days.
Continue to be prepared for unexpected moves over the next few days as the election unknowns are resolved. The last few days have been wildly outside any expectations I have had in this section.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Wednesday, November 4, 2020
You shake my nerves and you rattle my brain
Facts: +3.85% higher, Volume higher, Closing range: 73%, Body: 55%
Good: Held near top of the range, back above 21d EMA, 50d MA and support areas
Bad: Gap up could, swing the other way to cover gap
Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low
Candle: Bullish candle after a gap up, upper wick slightly longer
Advance/Decline: 1.16, About same amount of advancers and decliners
Sectors: Health (XLV +4.44%), Communication Services (XLC +4.31%), Technology (XLK +3.89%) were at the top. Industrials (XLI -1.03%), Financials (XLF -1.17%), Utilities (XLU -1.50%) and Materials (XLB -1.70%) were all losers.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Market Overview
What a difference a day can make. The Nasdaq reacted sharply to a turn in sentiment toward election results when it became apparent the “Blue wave” would not happen as originally thought. Even as the presidential election remains undecided, it seems that the Republicans will retain control of the Senate, putting a damper on any radical changes in the near-term. The index responded with a gap up and turned in a +3.85% gain on a 12% increase in volume. The candle is a nice thick bullish green with a 55% body and a 73% closing range. Declining stocks were about the same amount as Advancing stocks representing the rotation for previous bets that investors were making on election.
This is the highest high the Nasdaq turned in since October 19, and closing the index back above the key levels of the 21d EMA and the 50d MA as well as the September and October support levels marked on the chart. It is reasonable to expect some pullback, but hopefully we can hold above these levels, adding strength to a new rally.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Indexes and Sectors
The S&P 500 (SPX +2.21%), Dow Jones Industrial (DJI +1.35%) did not do as well as the Nasdaq but did turn in decent gains. The Russell 2000 (RUT +0.05%) was left behind a bit as investors shifted back to larger capital businesses. The S&P 500 closed above its 50d MA while the DJI remains just below this key line.
Health (XLV +4.48%), Communication Services (XLC +4.30%), Technology (XLK +3.89%) were the top sectors, which would benefit from at least a mixed party government, if not a Republican president. Industrials (XLI -1.03%), Financials (XLF -1.17%), Utilities (XLU -1.50%) and Materials (XLB -1.70%) were all losers. All of these losing sectors were doing very well ahead of the election, with expectations of the “blue wave” result.
The VIX volatility index decreased -16.57% putting it back in the late September and October range.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Bonds
Treasury Bond yields decreased on the day, as investors bought up the bonds in wake of changed expectations. The 10Y-2Y yield spread had a pullback but is still within an upward channel. I will keep an eye on this one over the next few days.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Market Leaders
The mega-cap stocks did well except for large Financial stocks. The big four all had great gains. Microsoft (MSFT +4.82%), Google (GOOG +5.99%) and Amazon (AMZN +6.32%) are all trading above their 50d MA and 21d EMA. Apple (AAPL +4.08%) is above the 21d EMA and heading toward the 50d MA. They all have relative candles showing strength compared to the index. That is the type of strength that is needed to put energy into a rally. I will keep watching for these four to continue leading the market higher.
There was broad support for favorite growth stocks, with many having big gains on the day. Facebook (FB +8.32%), Datadog (DDOG +8.30%), PayPal (PYPL +8.05%), JD.com (JD +8.01%) are a few of the big winners of the day. Paycom (PAYC +7.66%) is up another 4% after hours after announcing earnings beat expectations. Zynga (ZNGA +3.79%) missed estimates in their earnings release and is down -1.26% after hours. That is a lot less punishment than expectation misses in recent earnings announcements. Uber (UBER +14.59%) had a huge gain after winning legislation that will allow them to continue using contract drivers in California.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Looking ahead
Tomorrow will bring new Initial Jobless Claims data, following a less than expected change in ADP Nonfarm Employment data. It will be important to watch the employment data closely after the pandemic hits new heights. In the afternoon, the Fed will announce any changes in interest rates. The expectation for interest rates is to remain unchanged based on earlier messages from the Fed.
Cloudflare (NET +5.79%), Peloton (PTON +6.28%), Alibaba (BABA +3.55%), Square (SQ +8.27%), and Uber are all popular growth stocks that have earnings announcements scheduled for tomorrow.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Trends, Support and Resistance
There are three trend lines pointing to quite different spots on the chart. The first is the one-day trend that points to another +0.93% gain. That feels nearly sideways given the past two days of gains and cooling off a bit would be good for the market.
Likewise, the 5-day trend points to a -0.89% that is also sideways in the context of two days of big gains. A -0.89% pullback would not even touch the gap from this morning. The trend from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -5.10% loss. Unless sentiment changes dramatically, that does not seem likely for tomorrow.
I will add another trend line from the 10/30 bottom for the next update.
It seems we are clear of the July support area for the time being. Breaking through that support area would be dangerous as there is not much trading activity in the second half of the year in between that line and the June support area of 10,000. That area is now -12.56% below today’s close and I will remove the possibility of that outcome if we hold above support for the next few days.
Continue to be prepared for unexpected moves over the next few days as the election unknowns are resolved. The last few days have been wildly outside any expectations I have had in this section.
