IWM: Short Setup

5월 1일

Published by Wavervanir_International_LLC | May 1, 2025

Thesis: Short-term weakness is emerging on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) as momentum fades following a steep vertical rally. A breakdown below the mid-band could trigger further downside into key support zones.

🔍 Technical Breakdown
Chart: 15-minute timeframe

Trend: Bearish short-term momentum

Key Levels:

Resistance: $195.64 (session high)

Mid-range Support: $194.45 (VWAP/mid-band)

Critical Demand Zone: $192.87

Indicators:

Price has pierced the upper Bollinger band and is now retreating toward the midline.

Strong rejection candle formed at the recent high, signaling buyer exhaustion.

Visual downward projection aligns with the VWAP deviation bands, reinforcing mean reversion expectations.

🧠 Probability Outlook
Bearish Continuation: 65% probability

Trigger: Break and close below $194.45

Sideways Consolidation: 25% probability

Trigger: Price holds above VWAP zone

Bullish Reversal: 10% probability

Trigger: Break back above $195.64 with volume

🔧 Strategy
Short bias favored with target at $192.87

Stop-loss: Above $195.80

Watch for increased volatility near macro catalysts (e.g., Fed rate decisions)

🧭 Stay disciplined. We trade probabilities, not certainties.
💬 Drop your thoughts and setups below 👇

#IWM #Russell2000 #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #BollingerBands #MeanReversion #StockMarket #ETF #WavervanirDSS #MarketOutlook #QuantitativeTrading

5월 1일

노트

This is a bit riskier than my previous trades. Trade with caution.

5월 1일

노트

Trend Break! Increasing short positions.