ITC (Maximum Potential Drop)

Predicting the exact extent of a potential drop in ITC's stock price is challenging due to the influence of multiple dynamic factors, including market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and company-specific developments. However, based on available data and recent trends, here’s an analysis of how much ITC’s stock price could potentially drop.

Factors That Could Drive a Larger Drop
BAT Stake Sale Impact: The recent 2.5–2.87% stake sale by British American Tobacco (BAT) caused a 3–5% drop in ITC’s stock price on May 27–28, 2025. If BAT continues to offload its stake (currently ~22.5–22.7%), further selling pressure could push the price lower, potentially toward ₹400 or below, especially if market sentiment remains negative.

Weak Fundamentals: ITC’s Q3 FY25 results showed a 7.51% drop in net profit, and the paperboards segment is under pressure from low-priced imports and subdued demand. Continued underperformance could drive the stock closer to or below the 52-week low of ₹399.
Market and Regulatory Risks: Broader market volatility, such as the 1.4% decline in Indian indices due to India-Pakistan tensions, or potential increases in tobacco taxation (e.g., a proposed 35% GST rate), could exacerbate declines. A severe market correction or adverse policy changes might push ITC toward ₹390–₹400, a 4–7% drop from current levels.