$JSEIMP - Impala Platinum: More Pain In Store

2023년 6월 30일

I have taken some time to come up with long-term wave count of Impala Platinum.
PGMs on the JSE have taken a beating of late and many industry commentators are saying now is the right time to buy as these stocks are very cheap.
Well, I have to caution that Impala might still get even cheaper.

Looking at the chart from August 2018, which is the bottom of the great bear market from 2008/9, the advance to 30919 is in a clear five waves and since wave (4) terminated in the price territory of wave (1), this is a leading diagonal and not an impulse.

The bear trend from 30919 looks to be unfolding as a zigzag pattern which is contained in the descending channel.
Wave (A) was a choppy impulse.
Wave (B) unfolded as a zigzag.
Wave (C) looks to be unfolding as an impulse and currently in wave 3.

Using the Fibonacci expansion guidelines, 7650 and 3818 represents the price range where wave (C) equals and is 1.236*greater than wave (A) and this zone confluences with the lower support line of the channel.

Only a break above 15939 will prompt a re-evaluation of the wave count but not invalidating it.

Short the rallies.