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ICP-USDT weekly bull div on RSI.

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There is a pretty good buy signal on the weekly for me. ICP has been performing pretty well against BTC the past week. BTC is currently dumping below 20k again as I write this ($19741) So it's a risky time to buy alts,, and ICP hasn't dumped all that much the last 7 days compared to other good alts.. BUT - BTC is in heavily oversold levels on the weekly RSI.. And that's a weekly DIV on ICP.

There is also a kind of double bottom on the daily. (bit messy, but it may do)
I am investing some here. (well I bought last night, and am up a few percent currently. This isn't a trade for me, no stop-loss. The stoploss on the weekly would lose to much. Could play the double bottom if you see it as such.

not financial advise.

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Here's that 'double bottom' looks a bit crap... but it may do if BTC holds here.

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I am half asleep.... The weekly stoploss is the same as the Daily and not actually that massive a distance away. Still I am just buying this as a hold.

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Also. On the BTC pairing, I quite like this curve going on. (Curves are totally unreliable lol.... but I still like it)

That and a Div on the daily BTC pairing. Adds confidence for me.
(If BTC dumps hard --- which I don't really see happening.. but you know how things go... then this idea will probably go south. However, IMO this is a good price for ICP)

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and no, I don't really think that's an iHNS : ), again, looks like shit. But there is some nice volume and it's not like it's retesting a major S/R flip or anything.... just seems like it has room to go up to me.

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Ok, I have entered this with a trade also on the USDT pairing, it's looking alright to me so far. I'm not putting much on this trade as I'm a bit nervous about BTC.
The 'double bottom' I perceive looks better on the 12hour.

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Ok, appears there is a S/R flip I didn't spot. That's where it turned down from, but we have been retesting the neckline of the 'Double bottom I see.

I'm in. But if we break up above that red resistance it should be a nice run.
That resistance was less than 1:1R trade from the break of the neckline.... so I doubt the DB is done. I doubt many people bought the bottom of the double bottom, those that did would have a very nice R/R on this trade at that redbox and could have taken profit there to secure their stops and seal in some profit - but they might be adding back on the blue box.

I think it just hit the obvious previous support (redbox) and price was thrown back down to find support - which so far it looks to be finding it at the neckline. Which could lead to a second attempt at the red box.

If the Red breaks - I will be paying more attention to the BTC pairing.

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If we get strong rejection again at the redbox then.... one idea, could be to partially sell the 2nd wick upwards (still in the redbox hopefully) and raise the stop for the trade under the wicks on the blue box (the neckline retest)

If you bought the neckline then you shouldn't need to reduce the position by much in the red box in order to make this a risk free trade (including the stop being slightly below your entry) - if that's how it plays out.

Use the Long position tool on tradingview to calculate your R/R from your entry to the stop and redbox (wick) [IF we get another strong rejection there]
That way you can calculate how much you need to sell to make it a risk-free trade.

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There will most likely be some squabbling over that red box, so I'd want to see a big wick like we have already on the 12h.. I haven't really looked at the 4H tbh. Might have some earlier warning based off that.

1H.... well, there's almost guaranteed to be a rejection at least once - but that'll likely just be people taking profit... and not a solid indication that the market is rejecting properly. I'd rather see a rejection on a higher time frame than that before implementing plan: breakeven.

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So. In summary. If we get up to the red box again, and see some solid rejection.
I am proposing this to be a decent idea.

Do not raise the stop now. Only if we see rejection from the red box again. And try and sell the retest of the rejection to get the best R/R possible.

So if we reject, I will raise stops to below the retest from below the double bottom. The new trade will look like this and the R/R of the box I drew is 2.42 11%+ trade so market fees shouldn't make much of a dent.

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OK. I don't like what I'm seeing on BTC. I have closed my trade for a small loss.
I am keeping the amount I bought as an investment however, and will continue to DCA it if the whole market continues south.

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The ICP-USDT double bottom is still in tact per-se.... but it has now closed below the neckline I was watching... on the 2 hour. This next 4hour close is important I'd say.

However, being so close to my entry, and things now being more risky to my mind - made it not worth losing 5x as much on this trade to see how it played out.
I'm not comfortable with this trade now. It had been looking good... but now I am not confident. That's why I'm holding my investment and abandoning the trade.

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This is what's bugging me about BTC. And there is decent volume on the break of support.

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Hmmm, so far it looks like I juked myself out of my trade. I had my reasons, BTC still doesn't look good to me. But the trade is now up 5% from entry. (I sold at a loss of 1.5% or something.)

If we get to the redbox I would initiate plan break-even if you took this trade. (upon seeing signs of selling ofc. Or if your also nervous about BTC I'd perhaps just sell enough to B.E in the red box as soon as you see some serious selling happening in it.

I am not a great trader yet. My TA is not bad.. but I have some ways to go in the execution of my trades. If you took this, I hope it's working out well for you so far.
(i'm still holding my investment whatever happens)

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Appears also - that the neckline I drew,,, was perhaps too narrow. There was a 2nd layer just below that I could have included. That could have kept me in the trade but that BTC dump below the diagonal support would likely still have rattled me.

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Well, we have hit that Redbox. We have had a 1hour bearish engulfing candle. BUT!!! that doesn't look particularily bearish to me. Like I said; I'd rather see something clearer on the 4H minimum.

also the BTC pairing is still looking good to me --- but is giving mixed signals. broke up above it's consolidation and now retesting it (to my eyes) But there is a Bear Div now that needs to get broken. I still would personally have broken even this trade as a) 1hour bearish engulfing candle, 4hour bear div on the BTC/ICP pairing.

I would only sell as much as is needed to break even the NEW stop loss under the retest. As I think this could still Fly if we break that red box with volume.

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USDT pairing: Not very convincing selling.... so I'd want to keep as much of my position open as possible.

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BUT!!! I would take enough profit here to break even under the retest.
ok I am repeating myself now.. That's all the updates from me on this trade.
If we break above the Redbox - look at the BTC pairing. I drew some resistance lines on my chart - draw your own too, you might see something I don't.

If you see a big fat wick on one of those BTC pairing resitances... take profit. (never close the entire position, always leave some running; and whatever profit you take, try and find somewhere to add back in. Not more than you took off unless you get a really nice 80% retrace or something.

All the best.

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Finally here is how the updated 'breakeven' tactic would now look. 2.83R trade at current price so you don't need to close that much... to make this risk free.

Or you could take the profit and run, as always the choice is yours. I'm just sharing my thoughts and ideas. Nothing I post is financial advise, merely educational and for my own journaling.

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So, it did get rejected from the red box in the end.
I see it made a HnS on the hourly.

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^ so that HnS didn't hit target. And any shorters got squeezed. Would have been a nice place to add back in (the target of hns) if you took any more profit off than making the trade B.E(Break even) - But the original idea is looking good for now. (weekly).

The week closed, so that RSI cross is confirmed on the weekly in the original chart I posted (at the very start of this idea)

Still there is mixed signals on the 4H, and there's quite a lot of resistance on to chew through. We have had an open and close on the 4H above the red box. However That box is just a resistance area I drew, there is more resistance - that whole zig-zag area 7.37 - 9.55 ish is full of resistance. I do think we will chew through it personally.. but it might take some time.
There's perhaps some resistance on the BTC pairing 8% up from here and 17% up from here. But nothing major. the 17% is more likely to provide resistance so still room to go up while BTC does consolidates.

I've drawn some hourly horizontal resistances to keep an eye on the USDT pairing, it can be a good idea for one to take a 'Little' bit of profit if you see a bear hammer candle at least on the hourly on one of these new lines in this chart. But again, as I think this is looking bullish on the Weekly.... then you really do want to add back in what you take off. It's just a way to lock in a little bit of profit.

As always - DYOT+R this is just my ideas for educational purpose and journaling. If you don't agree with something I think, then that's totally fine - do as you see fit - always.

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Important to note --- that '4H bear Div' is as of yet unconfirmed as it hasn't turned down yet. It could just go up and up and shake off the bear div.
And on this latest LTF move up there is not bear div on the 4H (more visible in the chart 1 above the one above)

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looking alright still. 2nd retest of the neckline... but still looks alright.
The original trade setup should have you stopped out in profit or at break even if it goes down.

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well. not the original per-se. That was with a stop under the double bottom.
The new stop was under the low of the retest. And that became the 'new' trade.

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but it's not stopped out yet!

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whoo,

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Great pump last night. But on the 5minutes, yeah low TF... we have what *could be a hns. Thought the last HNS was used as fuel for the pump....
The neckline is on the 'important resistance' line I drew. So closing below that would indicate a small retracement probably. (5minute chart, so don't expect too much.) B.E if you'd want to stay in as a long (BE your short or profit taking)

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^oh.... that big wick was just on kucoin so ignore it.

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BTC pairing coming up to resistance, I have taken a small bit of profit here in anticipation of a small pull-back, I have moved it into other crypto that I am interested in that have not made big moves yet as BTC is looking good to me. Though I do think ICP has room to go a lot higher mid-term.

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Most of my holdings I have kept though only took about 10% off, as I think higher is totally possible. Pretty good volume.

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ok I took off a little bit more as the USDT pairing stopped bang on my upper resistance line and there is an unconfirmed bear div. I will be adding back though (if it comes down)

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anyone still following this? I will stop updating if not.

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I don't know xD.
BTC seems to be at resistance on the 4H.
So it'd appear to me we might get a pullback on bitcoin - BUT...... ICP/BTC is looking alright.
I'm really not sure, I'll update if I spot something substantial.

The ICP-BTC pairing is, seeming ok. But I think there's still a lot of fear around so I don't know how Alts will perform if BTC dropped.. Not looked at BTC.D in a while.

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USD pairing:

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Potential Double bottom --- and a wedge. Looks a decent setup.

right bottom taken a while.... but that wedge does look nice.

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Well the whole market collapsed - nothing is ever guaranteed rule *1. It's all probabilities.. i.e: any trade can go wrong.

So just to finish this article up ..
3D looked ok. Wasn't a rounded retest - a bit to close on the line, open on the line.

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On the 12 hour things looked better.
There was a rounded retest instead of the blocky closing on the line shit.
Then it got sold hard at the resistance.
Had a 2nd retest on the 12hour of the trendline support. failed. dumped below the 'double bottom'.