HRL - Deep Defensive Technical Buy

12시간 전

Hormel Foods is next for my deep buy system.

This one is a great defensive buy.

For TradingView, be aware that I am not specifically focused on defensive stocks. Rather it is certain defensive stocks that are arriving to deep technical opportunity.

In the pandemic crash it hardly blinked!

It has best dividend yield for this sector -4.85%

So if you're looking for a stock to buy in prime HTF technical position that can be resilient in a market crash then this might be a great choice.

Its not the highest volatility but it it has a very strong historical record.

Its hitting the distributive 2.272 GW and also a weak 1:0.618 GW - the weakness signals potential upside momentum if it bottoms here.

Nice LTF slightly lower low can be the Wyckoff SC > ST (arrow).

The only detail lacking is a strong support - so this setup is not 100% ideal, but its not too far off.

So, this is effectively a prime buy, but since there is no support - it must hold and will require some close monitoring until it moves up.

I bought a chunk here.

AI write up:

"Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL) is best classified as a defensive stock, anchored in the consumer staples sector. Its portfolio includes enduring brands like SPAM, Jennie-O, and Skippy, which cater to consistent consumer demand regardless of economic cycles. This defensive positioning is reinforced by Hormel’s stable dividend history and relatively low beta, making it a common pick for income-focused and risk-averse investors.
📊 Core Financial Highlights – Q3 Fiscal 2025:
- Net Sales: $3.03 billion, with organic growth up 6% year-over-year, driven by strong retail volume increases, especially in turkey and shelf-stable meats like SPAM.
- Operating Income: $240 million, with adjusted operating income at $254 million. Operating margin stood at 7.9%, slightly below historical norms, reflecting cost pressures.
- EPS: Diluted earnings per share came in at $0.33, or $0.35 adjusted. The company projects Q4 EPS between $0.38–$0.40.
- Valuation: Trailing P/E ratio is 17.3, forward P/E is 16.01, and PEG ratio is elevated at 5.17, suggesting slower growth relative to valuation.
- Balance Sheet: Hormel maintains a solid financial foundation with a market cap of ~$13 billion and enterprise value of ~$15.3 billion. Institutional ownership is moderate at 43.45%, and insider ownership remains low.
⚠️ Lowlights and Risk Factors:
- Profitability Pressure: Rising commodity costs have compressed margins, despite volume growth. Hormel’s Transform and Modernize initiative (90+ projects) aims to offset inflationary headwinds, but execution risk remains.
- Growth Constraints: While organic sales are rising, the PEG ratio signals limited earnings acceleration, potentially capping upside for growth-oriented investors.
🛡 Bankruptcy Risk: Hormel’s risk of bankruptcy is extremely low. The company has no history of financial distress, maintains strong cash flows, and operates in a recession-resilient sector. Its conservative capital structure and consistent dividend payments further reinforce its financial stability.

"Hormel Foods (HRL) currently pays an annual dividend of $1.16 per share, distributed quarterly at $0.29 per share. The next payment is scheduled for November 17, 2025, to shareholders of record as of October 14.
📈 Dividend Yield & Payout:
- Dividend Yield: 4.81%–4.89%, significantly above the consumer defensive sector average of ~2.85%
- Payout Ratio: ~84.7%, indicating a high portion of earnings is returned to shareholders
- Dividend Growth: Hormel has increased its dividend for 59 consecutive years, maintaining its Dividend King status
This high yield and long growth streak make HRL attractive for income-focused investors, though the elevated payout ratio suggests limited room for aggressive increases without earnings growth."

This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.

12시간 전

액티브 트레이드

11시간 전

노트

HRL (SPX)

Hormel through the pandemic crash - very strong.

Was bought back up extremely fast 🧐

11시간 전

노트

Notice that on LTF it has wicked down to reverse at the 0.81 retracement.

As we have seen with many charts, 0.81 is a bot favourite ratio for retracement pivots.

Also as in HTF, we also have a weak 1:0.618 Golden Window.

So this is ticking all the boxes in terms of ratio 👍.