6.26 Gold intraday analysis guide

On Wednesday (June 25), international spot gold rose slightly during the US trading session, but was still suppressed by the 20-day moving average (US$3,355). The RSI (14) was at 48.7, in the neutral range of 40-60, suggesting that the market lacks a clear direction. US$3,355 (20-day moving average) has become the recent watershed between long and short positions. If it breaks through this level, it may test the psychological barrier of US$3,400. The support below is US$3,245 (the low point on May 29). If it fails, it may drop to the integer level of 3,200 and US$3,121 (the low point on May 15). Stability of the geopolitical situation: If the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East continues, the outflow of safe-haven funds may further suppress the gold price. Fed policy expectations: If the July non-agricultural and CPI data show that inflation is cooling down, it may rekindle expectations of interest rate cuts and boost gold. The current gold market is in a "wait-and-see mode", and both long and short sides lack decisive momentum. Traders need to pay close attention to: US economic data: especially employment and inflation indicators for the Fed's policy path. Geopolitical dynamics: Any breakdown of the ceasefire agreement could quickly push up safe-haven demand. Dollar trend: If the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, a stronger dollar may further suppress gold prices. Gold is expected to maintain range fluctuations in the short term, with the $3,355 moving average resistance and $3,245 support forming a key trading range. The direction of the breakthrough depends on new fundamental catalysts.

Personal operation analysis:



Trend: Oscillating trend

Support: Near 3,300.00

Resistance: Near 3,335.50

Strategy:


View logic: Short view near 3,335-3,340, stop loss 3,345, take profit near 3,300--3,280, and follow the stop loss 300 points.