GOLD (XAU/USD) Weekly Open Analysis – H2 Structure

# 🟡 GOLD (XAU/USD) Weekly Open Analysis – H2 Structure

**Date:** 2025/08/11
**Timeframe:** 2H (Heikin Ashi)
**Style:** Smart Money Concept (SMC) + Supply/Demand + Price Action

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## 📊 Market Context

At the weekly open, gold price has started trading above the **upper parallel channel** where last week's close was printed. This level acts as a short-term **bullish bias zone**.

Simultaneously, the **Dollar Index (DXY)** opened at lower levels, showing signs of weakness. Historically, a falling DXY often supports upward movement in gold, and we may see a reaction as mapped in the chart.

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## 🔍 Key Technical Levels

- **Upper CHOCH Breakout Zone:** ~**3,399 – 3,400**
- **Major Supply Zone:** ~**3,440 – 3,445**
- **Demand Zone #1:** **3,345 – 3,350** (POI)
- **Demand Zone #2:** **3,320 – 3,330** (FVG completion)
- **Final Demand Floor:** **3,260 – 3,265**

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## 📈 Bullish Scenario (Primary)

1. **Condition:** CHOCH breakout above **3,400** with a bullish BOS confirmation.
2. **Entry Zone:** Retest near **3,399 – 3,402** after breakout.
3. **Targets:**
- 🎯 TP1: **3,420**
- 🎯 TP2: **3,432**
- 🎯 TP3: **3,445** (Major Supply)
4. **Invalidation:** Close back below **3,395** after breakout attempt.

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## 📉 Bearish Scenario (Alternative)

1. **Condition:** Price fails to break the upper CHOCH and rejects from **3,399 – 3,400**.
2. **Expected Move:** Drop towards **Demand Zone #1** (**3,345 – 3,350**).
3. **If Demand #1 Fails:** Continuation towards **Demand Zone #2** (**3,320 – 3,330**).
4. **Final Target in Deep Drop:** **3,260 – 3,265** (lowest demand line in chart).

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## ⚠️ Analysis Validity

> This analysis remains valid **as long as the upper CHOCH is not broken to the upside**.
> If the CHOCH breaks and a bullish BOS forms, the bearish path will be invalidated, shifting the focus to the upside targets.

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📌 **Note:** Always combine with DXY monitoring – a significant DXY rally could limit gold’s bullish potential.

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