Fed will remain the rate unchanged

2021년 11월 3일

Gold's general commentary: Interesting turn of events on the Short-term as Gold crossed Short-term Resistance on the Hourly 1 chart and crossed aswell #3 session High, which as usual resulted as an Bearish spike below the #1,778.80 Support zone. This is an additional Short-term Bullish signal similar to February #2 - #5 #2020 parabolic rise, which ended as an correction. The Daily chart needed consolidation (current upswing leans more to the Bullish side rather than Neutral on the Fed aftermath), as Gold is still ignoring Neutral trend on DX, following mostly losses on Bond Yields (taking strong hits) as Global Geopolitics dust rises, and as long those guide the market sentiment, further uncertainty on Gold is inevitable (along with the Bill passing in U.S.). I have nothing to add to my previous analysis (I saw how the Fundamental statistics were right giving Gold Buying pressure on Hourly horizon) and only if Weekly (#1W) Support at #1,761.80 is broken, Gold can give one more downturn opportunity towards #1,727.80. Other than that, with U.S. announcements speculations (announcing the #3-Month Bill passing plan policy and Fed minutes / NFP), there are no more macro-economic High impact announcements. My pick for today’s session is Buying order towards #1,808.80 Resistance zone above psychological barrier on the Fed aftermath, and if today’s session signal is successful, I will continue Trading, but for now, I will remain on sidelines, monitoring the Price-action awaiting market to reverse to Normal Trading conditions. Selling seems strongly limited regarding today's session.


Technical analysis: As discussed in my previous commentary about fragile DX standard (right now it's few percents down) Gold is already giving signs of Bearish momentum (Bearish underlying Medium-term trend). Current Selling spike on Gold came as no surprise as Gold does not represent anymore (as it has been) sole hedge against Inflation, as current Trading week is projected to be Bearish for Bond Yields (still without firm recovery and near Lower Low’s extension), hence Bullish and should be adding Buying pressure on Hourly basis on Gold. Technically, I am certain in May’s #19 Support Lower High break and continuation of Technical Bullish perspective. Taking all aspects in consideration, I expect aggressive uptrend towards #1,800.80 psychological barrier, if #1,778.80 - #1,780.80 Support zone breaks however, #1,761.80 should be next / that is Technical part - Fundamentally, Gold is equipped for an uptrend on new Fed defensive stance aswell (rate change is very unlikely) with Yields on invalidated recovery attempt (on the Fed aftermath) as an catalyst. For now it is dangerous to engage any kind of position since I see no Short-term pattern as I always look for since Gold can go both ways (I cannot rule out #1,800.80 - #1,812.80 upswing correction as Yields are still on the downtrend without Bullish confirmation. The current consolidation of Gold and DX resembles the October - November #2018 pattern before the future downward movements. My estimations for based on a Weekly basis for Gold after clearing it’s #2018 Annual #Q1 opening displays a reasonably clear run towards Lower levels after possible #1.812.80 rejection. Again, my models should work quietly well when fair Technical trend arrives and market returns to normal conditions because no Fundamental interference (shocks) will occur, now it is a different scenario (remember US - Iran conflict escalation and Gold reaction on it) and this new wave attracts both Buyers and Sellers on the market. I am expecting gradual rise towards #1,800.80 (possible extension towards #1,808.80) and then retracement towards #1,778.80 Support cluster.


Important note: Expect wide commentary (and chart explanation) on both Gold's Short and Medium-term throughout my tomorrow's session commentary / analysis.