If there is one thing that is nice about bonds, they represent physical rates and there a limit to how low rates can go on a 10Y tenor.
Bund is now fighting it with the Japanese 10Y.
There may be excess to 158.50 or even 160 why not but it shall come back and trade 150 rather quickly...
even the excess is only 2/3% away... excess that would be a black swan as it would put rates on the german bund close to 25bp (straight from 200bp).... unlikely and not very painful if happens.
Game plan:
short 40% at 156.30
short 60% at 158.50 if provided
Hold and unwind at 150.
there shall be another rebound with possibly a new top, to be reshorted.
Bund is now fighting it with the Japanese 10Y.
There may be excess to 158.50 or even 160 why not but it shall come back and trade 150 rather quickly...
even the excess is only 2/3% away... excess that would be a black swan as it would put rates on the german bund close to 25bp (straight from 200bp).... unlikely and not very painful if happens.
Game plan:
short 40% at 156.30
short 60% at 158.50 if provided
Hold and unwind at 150.
there shall be another rebound with possibly a new top, to be reshorted.
