DAX / Gold arbitrage opportunity in 2015

2014년 11월 2일

A long-term analysis of the DAX / Gold ratio shows a likely continuation of the rally in European stock markets and/or fall in gold prices in the coming months if this ratio breaks its multi-year trendline resistance (red line). Since the beginning of 2014, this ratio has been printing a series of lower highs ans lower lows, but we may see a new leg higher next year so long as the October lows hold. Given that gold's (XAUUSD) support broke this past week, it seems likely that this ratio will push higher for the rest of the year. So long-term investors and traders alike can look for a break above the 11 handle on this ratio to maintain a constructive stance on the DAX index next year / bearish biais on Gold.

***Gold is quoted in EUR here (i.e. XAUEUR)