DAX INDEX | Elliott Wave + SMC + Fib + Market Cycle

DAX INDEX | Super Cycle Wave (3) In Progress | Micro Wave (iv) Correction Expected | Elliott Wave + SMC + Fib + Market Cycle


This macro outlook on the DAX Index (GER40) combines Elliott Wave Theory, Smart Money Concepts (SMC), and Fibonacci Analysis, tracking the long-term price structure from the 1990s into the expected 2029 Super Cycle top.

We are currently nearing the completion of Micro Wave (iii) inside Super Cycle Wave (3), with a correction expected as Micro Wave (iv) before a final leg Wave (v) to complete the 20-year Super Cycle advance.


🌀 SUPER CYCLE STRUCTURE (Wave Count Recap)

🔵 Supercycle Wave (1)

• 📈 Topped in 2000
• 📐 Five-wave impulse from early 90s
  
• 💡 Marked the first major peak of the new macro bull cycle
  

🔴 Super Cycle Wave (2)

• 🕰 2000–2009
• 📉 Multi-year W-X-Y complex correction
  
• 🔻 Pulled back to 0.618 retracement of Wave (1)
  
• 📍 Bottomed Jan–Feb 2009 — Smart Money accumulation zone
  

🚀 Supercycle Wave (3) — Now in Progress (2009–2029 Target)

This is a multi-decade impulse wave, subdividing into Micro Waves (i) through (v).

🟠 Micro Wave (i)

• 🕰 2009–2018
  
• ✅ Clean 5-wave impulsive structure
  
• 🔓 Broke above Super Cycle Wave (1) high
  
• 📊 Confirmed initiation of Wave (3)
  

🟠 Micro Wave (ii)

• 🕰 2018–2020 (COVID crash)
• 🔻 Pulled back to 0.50 retracement of Wave (i)
  
• 📦 Retested key order blocks
  
• 💧 Liquidity swept beneath 2016–2018 lows
  
• 📈 Smart Money reaccumulation before major expansion
  

🟠 Micro Wave (iii) — Currently Unfolding

• 🕰 2020 – Expected top by end of 2025 or early 2026
• 🚀 Strongest wave in the structure
  
• 🔼 Targeting 2.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave (i)
  
• 🎯 Target zone: 30,941 (~32K)
• 📊 Multiple internal impulses have formed
  

🧠 Price delivery:

• Consistent BoS
  
• Minimal retracement
  
• No parabolic blow-off yet → confirming institutional flow
  

🟠 Micro Wave (iv) — Correction Expected Next

• 🕰 Expected: 2026 to early 2027
  
• 🔻 Projected retracement:
  0.382 – 0.5 of Wave (iii)
  Target zone: 23,350 – 22,165
  
• 💧 Confluence with:
  Sell-side liquidity pools
  Prior OBs and imbalance zones
  
• ⚠️ Reaccumulation phase likely before final rally
  

🟠 Micro Wave (v) — Final Advance to Complete Supercycle Wave (3)

• 🕰 Expected top by 2029
  
• 🎯 Target range: Above 32,000, possibly toward 35,000+ depending on extensions
  
• 🔄 Will mark the peak of Supercycle Wave (3)
  
• 📉 Anticipate a major correction in Supercycle Wave (4) after that
  

📐 FIBONACCI LEVELS OF INTEREST
Structure Key Fib Levels

• Supercycle (2) 0.618 retracement of (1)
  
• Micro Wave (ii) 0.50 retracement of (i)
  
• Micro Wave (iii) 2.618 extension of (i) → 30,941–32K
  
• Micro Wave (iv) 0.382–0.5 retracement → 23,350–22K
  
• Micro Wave (v) Possible extension to 38K+
  

🧠 SMART MONEY CONCEPTS (SMC)

• 🔓 Break of Structure (BoS) confirmed trend shifts at Wave (i), (ii), and internal impulses
  
• 📦 Order Blocks respected at retracement zones (2020 low, 2022 correction)
  
• 💧 Liquidity Grabs below previous lows fuel impulsive breakouts
  
• 🧱 Price Delivery = Institutional — no euphoric parabolas yet
  
• 🎯 Expect engineered liquidity sweep before Wave (iv) reaccumulation
  

📌 CONCLUSION

We are now nearing the completion of Micro Wave (iii) inside Super Cycle Wave (3) of the DAX. Price is approaching major extension targets (30,941–32,000), from where Wave (iv) correction is due.

This pullback (2026–2027) is expected to offer high-probability re-accumulation opportunities within a Smart Money demand zone before the final macro rally to new ATHs into 2029.

⚠️ After 2029, expect a larger Supercycle Wave (4) correction phase.

📘 DISCLAIMER: This is a structural, educational market outlook. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and risk management.